【Do retail investors get scared when they see “greed”? This wave of sentiment is nothing like you think】
Many people believe that once FNG reaches 70, they should run. The reason is “the market is too hot.” Let me tell you—this kind of judgment, in eight out of ten cases, is driven by emotions.
Look at the data: the weekly average is 62; the current is 70. It’s a bit hot, but not to an extreme. Look at ENA itself—down 2.5% over 24 hours, yet up more than 43% over the week. What is that? That’s a normal pullback within an uptrend. It’s not a signal that the market cycle is over.
But today I don’t just want to talk about crypto. I want to talk about something more fundamental—sentiment.
What’s happening in China’s A-share market now? Policy support, continued net inflows into ETFs, and institutions still holding relatively low positions. This round of行情 is like the crypto market: it’s not retail investors chasing it. It’s funds being reallocated. I’ve been through four market cycles, and at times like this, the biggest fear isn’t the rise—it’s when market sentiment suddenly shifts from cautious to euphoric. Once even aunties are asking you, “Can I buy?”, that’s when it’s truly dangerous.
Let’s get back to ENA’s business logic. It has fallen 86% from its peak—this drawdown has already entered the oversold range. Now market sentiment is supporting a rebound, but here’s the key question: can this rebound last? Has trading volume increased? Are there any real, substantive positive catalysts?
My view is: during periods when sentiment stabilizes, it’s actually a good time to pick projects. In a bull market, even trash can soar—it's in a sideways market that project quality gets tested.
How long do you think this kind of stable sentiment can last? In A-shares and crypto, which one will break the deadlock first?
Many people believe that once FNG reaches 70, they should run. The reason is “the market is too hot.” Let me tell you—this kind of judgment, in eight out of ten cases, is driven by emotions.
Look at the data: the weekly average is 62; the current is 70. It’s a bit hot, but not to an extreme. Look at ENA itself—down 2.5% over 24 hours, yet up more than 43% over the week. What is that? That’s a normal pullback within an uptrend. It’s not a signal that the market cycle is over.
But today I don’t just want to talk about crypto. I want to talk about something more fundamental—sentiment.
What’s happening in China’s A-share market now? Policy support, continued net inflows into ETFs, and institutions still holding relatively low positions. This round of行情 is like the crypto market: it’s not retail investors chasing it. It’s funds being reallocated. I’ve been through four market cycles, and at times like this, the biggest fear isn’t the rise—it’s when market sentiment suddenly shifts from cautious to euphoric. Once even aunties are asking you, “Can I buy?”, that’s when it’s truly dangerous.
Let’s get back to ENA’s business logic. It has fallen 86% from its peak—this drawdown has already entered the oversold range. Now market sentiment is supporting a rebound, but here’s the key question: can this rebound last? Has trading volume increased? Are there any real, substantive positive catalysts?
My view is: during periods when sentiment stabilizes, it’s actually a good time to pick projects. In a bull market, even trash can soar—it's in a sideways market that project quality gets tested.
How long do you think this kind of stable sentiment can last? In A-shares and crypto, which one will break the deadlock first?