Taking advantage of the message-driven surge of $CRML.US , let’s briefly look at similar historical patterns and what comes next:
Since CRML’s listing, there have been 14 instances of a single-day gain exceeding 20% (with repeated counts for consecutive limit-up days removed). Of these, 12 have complete follow-up data for the next 60 trading days.
1. A big rally doesn’t necessarily mean a top. Of the 12 cases, 11 went on to make higher prices afterward. The median rise from the day’s close to the phase peak is +72.0%.
2. The time to top tends to be relatively early. The median day when the phase peak occurred is the 10.5th trading day. In the sample, 50% topped within 10 trading days, and 67% within 20 days.
3. After the top, there is a sharp selloff. From the phase peak to the subsequent 20 days, the median pullback is -44.3%, and 92% of the samples experienced a drawdown exceeding 20%. The median close on the 20th trading day after the event is -5.5%, and on day 40 it is -17.5%. The proportion of positive returns fell from 42% to 25%.
#稀土
Since CRML’s listing, there have been 14 instances of a single-day gain exceeding 20% (with repeated counts for consecutive limit-up days removed). Of these, 12 have complete follow-up data for the next 60 trading days.
1. A big rally doesn’t necessarily mean a top. Of the 12 cases, 11 went on to make higher prices afterward. The median rise from the day’s close to the phase peak is +72.0%.
2. The time to top tends to be relatively early. The median day when the phase peak occurred is the 10.5th trading day. In the sample, 50% topped within 10 trading days, and 67% within 20 days.
3. After the top, there is a sharp selloff. From the phase peak to the subsequent 20 days, the median pullback is -44.3%, and 92% of the samples experienced a drawdown exceeding 20%. The median close on the 20th trading day after the event is -5.5%, and on day 40 it is -17.5%. The proportion of positive returns fell from 42% to 25%.
#稀土
