(Second Coin) $ETH My take:
First, let’s put this into plain language.
For now, 2408 is the most critical line. What used to be support underneath has now turned into a cap above your head. As long as the cap hasn’t been broken open, any rebound should be treated as weakness—don’t treat it as a strong rebound.
If you want to look toward 2460, you must first hold 2408, or else significantly increase volume to push through 2415. If it can’t hold, don’t rush to look higher.
How to go long: increase volume, then have the price break through 2415 from the right side, and then enter. For targets, first look at the 2445–2490 area. Also, the 1-hour chart must hold 2415 for it to count—otherwise it isn’t a valid breakout.
How to go short: increase volume, then have the price break down through 2390 from the right side, and then short. For targets, first look at 2360–2325. Once the 4-hour chart breaks below 2390, follow this direction.
Structurally, it’s simpler: if 2408 can’t hold, it will most likely pull back toward around 2360 to look for a double bottom. If 2360 holds and it truly forms a double bottom, then rebounds will have some real strength. But if 2408 keeps pressing down without going up, then you should first watch the 2280 area (Fib 1.618) as a fallback—don’t just stand there if it breaks through.
Also look at the 4-hour chart: the flag pattern has already broken. Until it’s reclaimed, the risk remains—like a door that could open the wrong way. For the first move down, watch 2308. If 2308 is lost, then this 4-hour up move can be considered “on pause for now”; only when it’s completely cooled off should you look lower to 2235.
One last dead-simple rule: if the volume isn’t enough, don’t act. Fake breakouts and fake breakdowns are the easiest ways to get hit. Your stop-loss must be in place—don’t stubbornly hold on.
First, let’s put this into plain language.
For now, 2408 is the most critical line. What used to be support underneath has now turned into a cap above your head. As long as the cap hasn’t been broken open, any rebound should be treated as weakness—don’t treat it as a strong rebound.
If you want to look toward 2460, you must first hold 2408, or else significantly increase volume to push through 2415. If it can’t hold, don’t rush to look higher.
How to go long: increase volume, then have the price break through 2415 from the right side, and then enter. For targets, first look at the 2445–2490 area. Also, the 1-hour chart must hold 2415 for it to count—otherwise it isn’t a valid breakout.
How to go short: increase volume, then have the price break down through 2390 from the right side, and then short. For targets, first look at 2360–2325. Once the 4-hour chart breaks below 2390, follow this direction.
Structurally, it’s simpler: if 2408 can’t hold, it will most likely pull back toward around 2360 to look for a double bottom. If 2360 holds and it truly forms a double bottom, then rebounds will have some real strength. But if 2408 keeps pressing down without going up, then you should first watch the 2280 area (Fib 1.618) as a fallback—don’t just stand there if it breaks through.
Also look at the 4-hour chart: the flag pattern has already broken. Until it’s reclaimed, the risk remains—like a door that could open the wrong way. For the first move down, watch 2308. If 2308 is lost, then this 4-hour up move can be considered “on pause for now”; only when it’s completely cooled off should you look lower to 2235.
One last dead-simple rule: if the volume isn’t enough, don’t act. Fake breakouts and fake breakdowns are the easiest ways to get hit. Your stop-loss must be in place—don’t stubbornly hold on.