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Written by: Rita
The semiconductor industry’s total addressable market (TAM) is expected to reach $3.2 trillion by 2030. In a U.S. semiconductor industry report published by Bank of America on September 14, 2026, the bank raised its forecast for the semiconductor industry’s total addressable market from $2.7 trillion to $3.2 trillion for 2023 to 2030. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2026 to 2030 was also increased from 14% to 18%. Memory chips and data centers are the key drivers, while a recovery in the automotive and industrial sectors provides additional support. The industry took 50 years to reach $1 trillion in sales; today, the potential market is expected to double from $1.7 trillion within four years.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya noted in the report that the AI industry is shifting from pursuing investment returns to tackling structural constraints such as chip availability and power supply. Memory chip shortages and price increases remain key growth factors. Even as concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment have intensified, there are no signs of slowing in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments, or semiconductor product pricing.
Semiconductor TAM doubles in four years
Bank of America expects 2026 semiconductor sales to grow 113% year over year, and core semiconductors to grow 30% year over year. Memory chips are performing even stronger, with sales growing by about 327% year over year. DRAM is up 328% year over year, and NAND is up 341% year over year. Compute and storage businesses are growing by more than 50% year over year, and server demand remains strong.
By end market, wireless communications sales are down 8% year over year due to weak smartphone shipments. Automotive is up 12%, industrial is up 32%, consumer electronics is down 7%, and wired communications is up 29%. Memory sales are expected to reach $93.7 billion in 2026, and core semiconductors are expected to reach $73.9 billion.
WFE raised to $270 billion
Bank of America raised its forecast for 2026 semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment spending to $156 billion, up 33% year over year. The 2027 forecast was raised to $210 billion, up 34%. The 2028 forecast was raised to $272 billion, up 30%. DRAM is the primary growth driver; the 2027 forecast was raised 21% to $52 billion, and the 2028 forecast was raised to $81 billion. The 2027 NAND forecast was raised 19% to $20.5 billion.
Bank of America forecasts that new-cycle capital expenditures from 2025 to 2030 will total $360 billion, with a CAGR of 25%. DRAM capex is $114 billion, NAND capex is $30 billion, and foundry and logic chips are $215 billion. China’s wafer-fab equipment spending in 2026 is expected to be $45 billion, accounting for 29% of the global total; by 2030, the share is expected to fall to about 20%.
Leasing prices confirm strong demand
The spot lease price for Nvidia B200 GPUs is currently about $5.72 per hour and has risen steadily over the past two months, only about 10% below the March peak of $6.10. The A100 leasing price is about $1.60 per hour, and H100 is about $2.65 per hour. Bank of America said that leasing prices staying at high levels indicate strong demand across a broad range of customers, with no sign of a slowdown.
Bank of America believes 2027 will be a year of full orders and sufficient contracts for all compute, networking, and memory suppliers. The market is expected to remain tight in 2028, benefiting from increasing demand for CPU and XPU integration as well as optical expansion technologies. Multiple ASIC and GPU vendors are also accelerating the development of AI accelerator businesses.
Valuation is attractive
The semiconductor index is up 67% year to date, but the forward P/E is 18x, below the S&P 500’s 19x. Earnings per share are up 139% year over year, with the growth rate about 7 times that of the broader market. Bank of America has taken a cautious stance ahead of the end of midterm elections and easing macro concerns. The index has recently pulled back by about 17% as investors reassessed the durability of AI.
Bank of America expects compute chips, networking chips, and analog chips to show stronger resilience. If market momentum recovers, Micron, Lam Research, Applied Materials, and Intel may lead the rally. Bank of America’s price targets are: $620 for AMD, $500 for NXP (NXP Semiconductors), $650 for Applied Materials, $145 for Intel, $385 for Lam Research, $365 for Monolithic Power Systems (MPS), $1,550 for Micron, and $350 for Nvidia.
Risks include memory average selling price declines exceeding expectations, intensified competition from new Chinese entrants, market share being taken by large competitors, and soft demand in end markets such as data centers and smartphones—these are the main downside risks. Upside risks include technological breakthroughs, increased flash market share, and NAND upgrades.
Semiconductor TAM doubles in four years, and capex at wafer fabs is raised in parallel. Bank of America believes demand driven by AI has not peaked.
Disclaimer
This article is a整理 and interpretation by ChaoXiang Research of third-party brokerage research reports (Bank of America, dated September 14, 2026), compiled based on public market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are solely the views of the brokerage’s analysts and represent only the position of the institution to which the analysts belong. They do not represent ChaoXiang Research’s viewpoints and do not constitute any investment advice.
There are risks in the market; decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any securities.
Written by: Rita
The semiconductor industry’s total addressable market (TAM) is expected to reach $3.2 trillion by 2030. In a U.S. semiconductor industry report published by Bank of America on September 14, 2026, the bank raised its forecast for the semiconductor industry’s total addressable market from $2.7 trillion to $3.2 trillion for 2023 to 2030. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2026 to 2030 was also increased from 14% to 18%. Memory chips and data centers are the key drivers, while a recovery in the automotive and industrial sectors provides additional support. The industry took 50 years to reach $1 trillion in sales; today, the potential market is expected to double from $1.7 trillion within four years.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya noted in the report that the AI industry is shifting from pursuing investment returns to tackling structural constraints such as chip availability and power supply. Memory chip shortages and price increases remain key growth factors. Even as concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment have intensified, there are no signs of slowing in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments, or semiconductor product pricing.
Semiconductor TAM doubles in four years
Bank of America expects 2026 semiconductor sales to grow 113% year over year, and core semiconductors to grow 30% year over year. Memory chips are performing even stronger, with sales growing by about 327% year over year. DRAM is up 328% year over year, and NAND is up 341% year over year. Compute and storage businesses are growing by more than 50% year over year, and server demand remains strong.
By end market, wireless communications sales are down 8% year over year due to weak smartphone shipments. Automotive is up 12%, industrial is up 32%, consumer electronics is down 7%, and wired communications is up 29%. Memory sales are expected to reach $93.7 billion in 2026, and core semiconductors are expected to reach $73.9 billion.
WFE raised to $270 billion
Bank of America raised its forecast for 2026 semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment spending to $156 billion, up 33% year over year. The 2027 forecast was raised to $210 billion, up 34%. The 2028 forecast was raised to $272 billion, up 30%. DRAM is the primary growth driver; the 2027 forecast was raised 21% to $52 billion, and the 2028 forecast was raised to $81 billion. The 2027 NAND forecast was raised 19% to $20.5 billion.
Bank of America forecasts that new-cycle capital expenditures from 2025 to 2030 will total $360 billion, with a CAGR of 25%. DRAM capex is $114 billion, NAND capex is $30 billion, and foundry and logic chips are $215 billion. China’s wafer-fab equipment spending in 2026 is expected to be $45 billion, accounting for 29% of the global total; by 2030, the share is expected to fall to about 20%.
Leasing prices confirm strong demand
The spot lease price for Nvidia B200 GPUs is currently about $5.72 per hour and has risen steadily over the past two months, only about 10% below the March peak of $6.10. The A100 leasing price is about $1.60 per hour, and H100 is about $2.65 per hour. Bank of America said that leasing prices staying at high levels indicate strong demand across a broad range of customers, with no sign of a slowdown.
Bank of America believes 2027 will be a year of full orders and sufficient contracts for all compute, networking, and memory suppliers. The market is expected to remain tight in 2028, benefiting from increasing demand for CPU and XPU integration as well as optical expansion technologies. Multiple ASIC and GPU vendors are also accelerating the development of AI accelerator businesses.
Valuation is attractive
The semiconductor index is up 67% year to date, but the forward P/E is 18x, below the S&P 500’s 19x. Earnings per share are up 139% year over year, with the growth rate about 7 times that of the broader market. Bank of America has taken a cautious stance ahead of the end of midterm elections and easing macro concerns. The index has recently pulled back by about 17% as investors reassessed the durability of AI.
Bank of America expects compute chips, networking chips, and analog chips to show stronger resilience. If market momentum recovers, Micron, Lam Research, Applied Materials, and Intel may lead the rally. Bank of America’s price targets are: $620 for AMD, $500 for NXP (NXP Semiconductors), $650 for Applied Materials, $145 for Intel, $385 for Lam Research, $365 for Monolithic Power Systems (MPS), $1,550 for Micron, and $350 for Nvidia.
Risks include memory average selling price declines exceeding expectations, intensified competition from new Chinese entrants, market share being taken by large competitors, and soft demand in end markets such as data centers and smartphones—these are the main downside risks. Upside risks include technological breakthroughs, increased flash market share, and NAND upgrades.
Semiconductor TAM doubles in four years, and capex at wafer fabs is raised in parallel. Bank of America believes demand driven by AI has not peaked.
Disclaimer
This article is a整理 and interpretation by ChaoXiang Research of third-party brokerage research reports (Bank of America, dated September 14, 2026), compiled based on public market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are solely the views of the brokerage’s analysts and represent only the position of the institution to which the analysts belong. They do not represent ChaoXiang Research’s viewpoints and do not constitute any investment advice.
There are risks in the market; decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any securities.