February 6, 2026
Bankruptcy of 810 million USD, Bitcoin dipped to a low of 60,000, Ethereum fell below 1,800 USD. Brothers, this is what a real bear market looks like. The four-year cycle is the soul of the cryptocurrency world, and behind this four-year cycle is the halving mechanism of Bitcoin at work. In a sense, this is also a representation of Bitcoin's value, which is that regardless of external market conditions, whether it’s Wall Street capital or the U.S. government's strategic reserves, Bitcoin will fall when it needs to! Conversely, Bitcoin will rise when it needs to rise! However, according to historical patterns, Bitcoin's bull and bear declines can be very significant, previously falling by 70-80%, but it has now fallen below 50%. Normally, as liquidity and market capitalization gradually increase, volatility will decrease, meaning it could drop by 60-70%, which corresponds to a bottom price of around 40,000 to 50,000.
As for whether this wave will directly hit, it's hard to say, because the downward trend is still ongoing, and everyone has seen that Bitcoin can drop ten thousand dollars in a day. In a situation of insufficient liquidity, if the bears continue to push harder, it might reach fifty thousand. At present, there are no signs of a short-term stop in the decline, and there are definitely not many who dare to catch the falling knife. However, it is certain that once the short-term decline stops, this wave of decline will come to an end, initiating a rebound market. Moreover, since the bear market has arrived, according to the four-year cycle, the next six months to a year will be a torturous market.
It's not that I'm pessimistic, but rather an objective fact. Think about it, after the main players have crazily dumped so many chips, how could they possibly rally before buying back at lower prices? And for those who have taken over, since they are trapped, how could they easily exit without experiencing a few months of turbulence and washout? Therefore, after a crash, there must be a long-term sideways consolidation before a major upward wave can occur. Note, I say 'possible', because for some altcoins, the main players may abandon the market, but for Bitcoin, it's obviously impossible to abandon the market.
To be honest, I'm not worried about everyone selling now, because generally speaking, as long as they haven't leveraged, it's unlikely to choose to cut losses. What I worry about is that months later, everyone won't be able to hold on, becomes desperate, loses confidence in the coin circle, and sells their coins. Brothers, get ready to truly embrace the bear market. Personally, the space I can operate in is not large anymore, I won't easily leverage, but even if it continues to drop, I will hold my coins well. Brothers, it's time to once again release the oath of the 'coin guardians':
The decline is coming, I will start to guard my coins from now on, to the death.
I will not sell coins, cash out, or short.
I will not look at the price, nor ask about the rise and fall.
I am the guard in the crash, I am the awakener of the bull market.
I am the flame that resists panic, the light at dawn.
The horn to awaken the leeks, guarding the strong shield of the coin circle.
I dedicate my life and honor to the coin guardians.
Tonight is like this, every night is the same.
