DRAM This week it slid from 60.3 to 55.5 in a steady downtrend. In the large-holder accounts, more than 70% are still long, but the price has been pinned below the two moving averages—so the inventory hasn’t been sold off yet, and the takers are gone.
Over seven hours, the open interest fell by 6.7%. Sell orders of 25,693 lots were placed to press down over buy orders of 20,484 lots. The share of the buy-side dropped to just 44%. This isn’t consolidation—it’s someone reducing positions. In the contract, the fee rate is slightly positive yet below the average; even the longs are pinching pennies on the premium—nobody is in a hurry to jump in.
The large holders are even more direct: the long position share fell by another 2.7% over those seven hours, and the account share shrank by 1.1%. With more than 70% still long, it’s existing positions—not new longs. In the spot order book (20 levels), the sell-wall is still about 10% thicker than the buy-wall. Across the entire window, net inflows of large orders were all zero—no big money sent any signal to try a position.
Bias: turn short. If the 24-hour low at 55.29 is broken, that’s the next step down. If the rebound toward MA20 at 55.88 can’t get back up, that’s a reason to add short positions.
Conditions for a viewpoint reversal: price reclaims above 56 while open interest turns upward and the share of active buying flips back over 50%, or the large holders’ long position share rises again. Only then will I talk about going long.
#dram $DRAM
Over seven hours, the open interest fell by 6.7%. Sell orders of 25,693 lots were placed to press down over buy orders of 20,484 lots. The share of the buy-side dropped to just 44%. This isn’t consolidation—it’s someone reducing positions. In the contract, the fee rate is slightly positive yet below the average; even the longs are pinching pennies on the premium—nobody is in a hurry to jump in.
The large holders are even more direct: the long position share fell by another 2.7% over those seven hours, and the account share shrank by 1.1%. With more than 70% still long, it’s existing positions—not new longs. In the spot order book (20 levels), the sell-wall is still about 10% thicker than the buy-wall. Across the entire window, net inflows of large orders were all zero—no big money sent any signal to try a position.
Bias: turn short. If the 24-hour low at 55.29 is broken, that’s the next step down. If the rebound toward MA20 at 55.88 can’t get back up, that’s a reason to add short positions.
Conditions for a viewpoint reversal: price reclaims above 56 while open interest turns upward and the share of active buying flips back over 50%, or the large holders’ long position share rises again. Only then will I talk about going long.
#dram $DRAM
