ETF flows
On August 13, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $131.1 million, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows; over two days, cumulative outflows totaled about $192.2 million. After the large outflow on August 10, institutional funds returning did not form sustained inflows.
On-chain holdings (address basis)
Continuous snapshots from August 13 to 14:
Below 10 BTC: Net increase of about 538 BTC; latest total holdings about 3.4388 million BTC
10–100 BTC: Net decrease of about 974 BTC; latest total holdings about 4.2212 million BTC
Above 100 BTC: Net increase of about 657 BTC; latest total holdings about 12.4073 million BTC
Inside above 100 BTC:
100—1,000 BTC: Net decrease of 6,625 BTC; latest total about 5.1675 million BTC
1,000—10,000 BTC: Net increase of 7,638 BTC; latest total about 4.2548 million BTC
10,000—100,000 BTC: Net decrease of 356 BTC; latest total about 2.2695 million BTC
Above 100,000 BTC: Net change of 0 BTC; latest total about 715,500 BTC
The total amount above 100 BTC is still increasing, but there is clear band shifting internally. Today’s most prominent change is a decrease in the 100—1,000 BTC range, alongside a simultaneous surge in the 1,000—10,000 BTC range; for now, it can’t be simply viewed as big holders adding in unison.
Futures data
BTC open interest is about $48.41 billion. In the past 24 hours, futures trading volume is about $50.49 billion, spot trading volume about $2.98 billion, and futures volume is about 17 times spot.
In the past 24 hours, BTC liquidations were about $58.36 million. The funding rate remains modestly positive at roughly 0.0086% per 8 hours. In ordinary accounts, about 65.1% are long, and recent liquidations have clearly been concentrated on long positions.
Currently there isn’t extreme leverage crowding, but there’s a noteworthy combination: spot trading is weak, retail accounts are clearly more abundant, yet price continues to be under pressure.
Today’s important news
US July PPI was flat month-over-month at 0%, below market expectations of +0.2%. Year-over-year, it eased from 5.5% to 4.7%. After CPI and PPI both stayed relatively mild in consecutive releases, the market’s probability of a September rate hike has fallen to about one-third. Macroeconomic interest-rate pressure has clearly eased, yet BTC dropped below $63,000—indicating that the key factor limiting price is currently more about the crypto market’s own spot demand.
The US SEC originally planned to discuss new crypto asset exemption rules today, but the meeting was temporarily postponed without a new date given; meanwhile, the Congressional market structure bill has also been pushed to September. Short-term regulatory catalysts are further delayed.
Tether announced that its 2025 financial statements have completed comprehensive independent audits for the first time. The audit results have not yet been disclosed, so it won’t directly bring additional liquidity, but it has structural significance for long-term transparency of USDT reserves and institutional acceptance.
Next, mainly watch
The most important contradiction right now is: US inflation pressure is easing, but BTC hasn’t caught up; ETFs have seen two consecutive days of outflows, spot trading is only about $3 billion, and ordinary accounts are also clearly net long. This suggests the current issue isn’t a lack of macro positives, but that the positives haven’t translated into spot buying.
If, afterward, ETFs reappear with sustained net inflows, and spot trading activity significantly expands while the ratio of futures/spot trading volume declines, then macro improvements would be starting to transmit into BTC. If the macro environment stays fairly friendly but ETFs continue to flow out and spot remains weak, then the current weakness is more likely due to BTC’s own insufficient funding demand.
On-chain, there are a net increase of 657 BTC for holdings above 100 BTC, but there was an internal migration of over 7,000 BTC. Only if subsequent consecutive snapshots continue to show net gains in the 1,000—10,000 BTC band—and not a sustained equal outflow in the 100—1,000 BTC band—will this signal truly indicate meaningful consolidation of chips.