As for Bitcoin, the situation has become a bit worse than yesterday, but we are still within a narrow sideways range. Right now, at the 63957 mark.
Fear and greed index - 29
Cryptocurrency market capitalization - $2.16 trillion.
Cryptocurrency market capitalization without BTC, ETH - $0.656 trillion.
Bitcoin dominance - 59.24%
If yesterday was in uncertainty, but with a slight advantage toward a move up to the upper external liquidity, then today everything is still in uncertainty, but with a priority toward a move down. Since yesterday the 64200 level wasn’t held, we formed an impulsive pullback on the 4H timeframe with the formation of a bearish imbalance, and we consolidated below 64200 even with the daily candle. But 63800 hasn’t been broken yet. The 63100-63800 zone is the last stronghold of uncertainty and a move toward the lower boundary of the sideways range at 61k.
As I said last week as well: if oil breaks above 87, the target goes to 99, and for crypto that would probably look not very good. In fact, oil has broken out and is already trading at 92. So at minimum, the oil targets should be reset after taking the liquidity off the fractal at 95, but I think we’ll also reach 99.
Bitcoin will determine the next move: either we break through one of the zones — 66,200 and we move up, or 61,600 and we still go after finishing off the long positions.
We’ll generally need to wait for tomorrow’s release of CPI inflation data, and the day after tomorrow — PPI. I believe these macroeconomic indicators will play the main role in determining and breaking through one of the two zones. Either everyone is seeing improving inflation (i.e., it decreasing) and we’re in a positive mood and go above 66k, or inflation is rising and then we drop and consolidate again into mid-autumn. Of course, everyone is tired of the bear market, and it would be nice to see more growth, but purely by instinct it feels like the market still needs one final dose of blood. The problem is that you can’t let the manipulators and MM drag it too far, because if the broader market starts to fall significantly and corrects by -30%, then crypto will again drop by -50% or more (if we’re talking about altcoins in general).
In short, we don’t guess. Tomorrow we’re waiting for the data; I’ll post it after.
As for altcoins, I’m currently running various analyses. I’m interested in tokens that will pass regulation first (the clarity act) and also those that have a real business model tied to a token.
News
Yesterday, the total net outflow from spot BTC ETFs was $144.6 million.
Total net outflow from spot ETH ETFs was $14.6 million.
The yield on Japan’s two-year bonds reached 1.615%, the highest level since March 1995.
The LINK token could reach $200 by the end of 2030, according to a Standard Chartered forecast.
In Sui, they announced the launch of Tessera — a closed network for business payments (B2B).
The weekly income of PumpFun is at the highest level since the beginning of the year: last week revenue exceeded $10 million.
Trump said he instructed U.S. negotiators to demand compensation from Iran during future negotiations.
The preferred option today is Bitcoin in a range with the lower bound at 63,100–63,800 and the upper bound at 64,700–65,200.
Alternative — Bitcoin consolidation below 63,100.