Hello everyone, I’m Lao Liu

Today is August 4, 2026

Tuesday

Although gold opened higher yesterday, during the session it continued to fluctuate and pull back. In the late session, the low point briefly retreated to around 4020. After that, the market rebounded slightly, but the main structure still remains weak. In the latter part of the night, price recovered to above 4050, but on the daily chart it ultimately closed with a single bearish candle. It still closed below the moving average band.

Looking at the daily structure, gold still maintains a choppy, range-bound performance. It is consolidating within a large triangle zone at the daily timeframe, and the trading range is further narrowing. This suggests that it needs to wait for the fundamentals to determine the final direction. At present and in the near term, the fundamentals that can decide gold’s direction mainly boil down to two factors: Federal Reserve policy and the Iran–US situation. Regarding the Fed, focus should be on this Friday’s non-farm payroll (NFP) data. Combined with prior market expectations, it is likely to be somewhat bearish for gold, and could also be a medium- to long-term negative factor. If in the second half of the year market expectations for further Fed rate hikes remain strong, that would also imply there is a significant chance that 4000 could be broken to the downside. As for the Iran–US situation, although it also affects gold to some extent, the “hit-and-stop” type maneuvers are too frequent. The market may lose patience with related news, so it is unlikely to bring about major volatility, and the impact period is limited. Therefore, for gold’s medium-term direction going forward, it still mainly needs to reference Fed policy developments.

Based on the daily chart and the hourly structure: although gold is currently in a large-range sideways consolidation, it is still trading below the daily moving average area, so it is relatively weaker. Therefore, before this week’s nonfarm-related news arrives, the market will most likely remain cautious and dominated by sideways trading.

On the hourly chart, although there was a pull-up in early trading today, the main structure is still within a sideways consolidation range. Therefore, today’s gold’s main structure remains sideways and somewhat weak. Resistance to watch is around 4070-4080. On the downside, continue to watch 4030-4020. For now, expect range-bound movement within this small range. If price breaks out, buffer resistance is around 4100, and buffer support is around the 4000 round-number level.

For trading, today the aggressive approach should still refer to short-term low-long near the 4070-4080 area on top and shorting high near the 4030-4020 range on the downside. You can continue to focus on choosing shorts on strength.

For intraday trades: take a light short position near 4070 on a rebound. Add a light short near 4078. Use a unified stop-loss if price holds above 4085. On the downside, look toward around 4040 to reduce positions. For the remaining open positions, continue to reduce around 4030-4020. You can also keep part of the positions to attempt holding a swing short.

Intraday, I still do not advocate taking short longs. Even if there is an expectation of a rebound this morning/early session, try not to bet on the rebound, because the timing for short-term longs is too poor and depends heavily on the news and market sentiment. The price action is still more likely to fall than to rise, making short-long positions difficult to control.

【Crude Oil Analysis】

U.S. crude oil is affected by news that the U.S. and Iran are seeking talks. Yesterday it gapped down sharply at the open, and overall it has been showing weak sideways consolidation. The pullback low was around 78.4. Although there was a rebound in the latter part of the night, the daily candle ultimately closed as a small bearish candle, but it still failed to stay above the 20-day moving average.

Considering that the U.S.-Iran parties are currently making frequent moves and causing significant disruption to market sentiment, U.S. crude in the short term still needs to maintain a very high level of caution.

For intraday technical levels for U.S. crude, first watch the previous rebound high near 81.2 for resistance/struggle. If it breaks above, then look toward 82, and potentially even around 83.

On the downside intraday, first watch the area around 78.8 for contention. If it breaks below, then watch the area around 77.8 for contention.

Due to the recent frequent disturbances from the news flow, there have been too many gap events, reducing the technical reference value. Therefore, the main line of thinking for trading is still to watch more and act less. For aggressive participation, you can still take short-term low-long/high-short positions around the above-mentioned ranges, but you must also closely monitor any unexpected news-related developments from the U.S.-Iran situation and adjust in a timely manner.

The above is a personal share! For reference only#Gold