Trump paused the next round of military strikes against Iran, and the market has temporarily exhaled. As long as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz can ease, oil prices and inflation expectations may cool off, and the external pressure facing US stocks, semiconductors, and BTC may lessen as well. But I think geopolitical risk is only temporarily loosening its grip on the market’s neck. Next week, what truly determines whether capital is willing to return to risk assets is whether companies can deliver the numbers.
So next week, what I’d rather watch isn’t how much BTC moves up or down over the weekend, but SpaceX and AMD’s earnings reports on the evening of August 4. I hold $SPCX and also have a semiconductor position. SpaceX needs to prove whether Starlink can support revenue and cash flow, and AMD needs to show whether demand for AI servers has genuinely turned into orders. I don’t think Wall Street is bearish on AI; it just isn’t willing to keep paying indefinitely for pitches that don’t materialize. SpaceX’s rocket story is big enough, but after listing, you still have to look at capital expenditures and profitability. AMD’s growth can’t rely solely on industry expectations either—AI chip shipments, data center revenue, and guidance for the next quarter are what matter. The market is starting to check the books now: how much was spent and how much of that is ultimately coming back, must be made clear.
If tensions between the US and Iran continue to cool, and SpaceX and AMD both deliver strong growth and stable guidance at the same time, the market’s earlier concerns about a slowdown in AI hardware demand may ease, and semiconductors, memory, and BTC may have a chance to recover too. But if geopolitical conditions swing back again, or if the guidance from either company is weak, the market will likely continue compressing AI valuations. That’s the real two-track story worth watching next week.
So next week, what I’d rather watch isn’t how much BTC moves up or down over the weekend, but SpaceX and AMD’s earnings reports on the evening of August 4. I hold $SPCX and also have a semiconductor position. SpaceX needs to prove whether Starlink can support revenue and cash flow, and AMD needs to show whether demand for AI servers has genuinely turned into orders. I don’t think Wall Street is bearish on AI; it just isn’t willing to keep paying indefinitely for pitches that don’t materialize. SpaceX’s rocket story is big enough, but after listing, you still have to look at capital expenditures and profitability. AMD’s growth can’t rely solely on industry expectations either—AI chip shipments, data center revenue, and guidance for the next quarter are what matter. The market is starting to check the books now: how much was spent and how much of that is ultimately coming back, must be made clear.
If tensions between the US and Iran continue to cool, and SpaceX and AMD both deliver strong growth and stable guidance at the same time, the market’s earlier concerns about a slowdown in AI hardware demand may ease, and semiconductors, memory, and BTC may have a chance to recover too. But if geopolitical conditions swing back again, or if the guidance from either company is weak, the market will likely continue compressing AI valuations. That’s the real two-track story worth watching next week.
