1. Price forecast
Short-term: several hours — 3 days
SOL is located between two structures:
· on SPOT 1D — potential W near the neckline line;
· on futures 8H and 2H — confirmed local breakdown to the downside (short).
Therefore, the key range:
$74.70–77.53.
Base route
$75.90–76.24 → return to $76.60–77.10 → seller reaction → $75.30 → $74.70.
If $74,70 is not held:
$74,43 → $73,21 → $72,81 → $71,89.
The long route
The price must:
1. return $76,24;
2. close above $77,10;
3. break $77,53;
4. hold the retest from above.
Then the targets are:
$78,12 → $78,85–79,21 → $80,58–81,53 → $83,02–84,36.
Only after closing above $84,36 does the full potential of the daily W get activated:
$88,05–89,75.
Medium term: several days — several weeks
As long as SOL is above $69,65, the global recovery from $59,74 has not been destroyed.
But for now it has been halted by the correction.
For a recovery of the medium-term uptrend, a return above is needed:
$77,53 → $79,21 → $81,53 → $84,36.
Potential targets:
· $88,05;
· $89,75;
· $94,33–94,53.
The target $94,53 becomes actionable only after a confirmed break of $84,36 and holding $88,05.
A close below $69,65 cancels the recovery structure and returns the targets:
· $65,53;
· $62,29;
· $59,74.
7. Total for SOL/USDT
Your hypothesis is technically logical, but the long and short parts are at different stages of confirmation.
Long
· the W pattern is potentially formed;
· price near the neckline;
· the calculated target $88,05 is acceptable;
· there is no confirmed break of the neckline;
· the goal $94,53 is premature for now.
Short
· the uptrend has been broken;
· on the 8H timeframe there is a break of structure;
· 2H confirms weakness;
· the premium return zone is located roughly in the range $76,60–78,85;
· the lower targets $74,43, $73,21 and $71,89 are confirmed by several data blocks.
Final decision
Right now, the short structure is stronger.
But the short at the current price near $75–76 is weak. Price is hovering around support.
Working logic:
· wait for a pullback to $76,60–77,53 and look for a confirmed short;
· either wait for a break of $74,70 and a retest from below;
· consider a long only after a confirmed hold of $74,70–75,30 or after a close above $77,53.
The $75,60–76,20 zone is a waiting area. Neither long nor short on the market here has a normal advantage.
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