$MERL
The recent trend has mainly been dragged down by the overall market. It's not that the projects lack stories, but in this environment, there is too little risk capital willing to invest. Therefore, every time it approaches $0.5, it feels like hitting a wall, with increasing pressure.
$0.5 is no longer just a technical resistance; it has become everyone's 'psychological boundary.' After failing to break through three times, the market has already accepted that once it reaches this level, someone will sell. Once this expectation solidifies, it becomes even harder to break through, because any increase in trading volume will be interpreted as 'someone is fleeing,' rather than 'someone is buying in.'
Buying interest is also hesitant. Although trading volume has increased, active buying has not formed a consensus; it is more about tentative purchases. As soon as they see selling pressure from above, they immediately withdraw. Simply put, no one wants to be the 'last person to lift the sedan.'
On-chain data is similar; as it approaches $0.5, there is continuous selling, with batches of chips choosing to exit at the same price level. This indicates that the selling pressure is not accidental but structural, with sellers showing stronger initiative.
So rather than saying it can't rise, it feels more like the market's risk pricing hasn't been reset yet, and the chip structure is leaning bearish.
In the short term, even if there is a rebound, it is likely just to clear floating chips, not a genuine breakthrough. Trying to chase high prices at this time can easily turn into being trapped.
A more stable approach is to maintain a light position or simply wait and see until the sentiment warms up, the upper chips are fully digested, and until there are clearer low-buying ranges or breakout signals before taking action.
