What do you know??
The US unemployment benefit application is at 191k, lower than the expected 220k – it sounds like the labor market is as strong as an ox.
But wait… yesterday ADP -32k, the biggest drop since March 2023.
To put it bluntly, the outside is smiling, but inside the labor market is determined.
In summary: Beautiful data to… cover up the impotence of the US labor market.
And if the market is weak, the Fed has to cut interest rates more.
If they cut more, what happens?
We are happy. The market is happy. Your brothers are happy.
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