$ETH The probability of interest rate cuts has soared to 94%, but don't celebrate too early

Crypto friends, the latest prediction market shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has surged to an astonishing 94%! This number is essentially equal to what the market believes is a 'done deal' for rate cuts. Although tonight's employment data is important, its influence may have weakened in the face of such high expectations.

What does this mean for the market in the short term? Simply put, it means that 'good news may have already been priced in.' The recent rebound in cryptocurrency prices is partly due to trading on this expectation. The real risk may lie in the 'overly consistent expectations'—when everyone thinks the outcome is certain, any slight deviation in results could lead the market to fluctuate because of 'good news being fully priced in.'

A few reminders for retail investors:

Beware of 'buying the expectation, selling the fact': Don't blindly chase high prices just because the probability of rate cuts is high, especially when market sentiment is overly optimistic.

Pay attention to 'what comes next': More important than the rate cut itself is the Federal Reserve's latest forecast on the interest rate path for next year and Powell's speech tone. That will be the key to determining whether the market can continue to rise.

Maintain a rational position: Before major events unfold, keep a position that allows you to sleep peacefully. Don't let overly optimistic sentiment replace your risk control discipline.

Remember, when consensus is highly aligned, it often is also the most sensitive time for the market. Protecting your profits and capital is more important than anything else.

If you always feel one step behind the market, constantly 'buying and the price drops, selling and the price rises', then let me tell you, it's not that you lack analysis, you lack a professional guide who can remind you in real-time that 'opportunity is here' and 'run fast'!

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