This year's cryptocurrency market has a proven iron rule: during the three days of the world's top blockchain conferences, ETH must experience a volatility of 10-20%. From the sharp drop of ETH to 1388 at the Hong Kong Web3 conference in April, to the rise of BTC breaking through the historical high of 126000 at the Singapore TOKEN2049 in October, and then to the V-shaped reversal of 'first dropping 10% and then rising 15%' at the Dubai BBW in December, three major events leading to three extreme market conditions is no coincidence. Behind this is the deep resonance of capital games, speculative expectations, and market structure. Understanding this wave of 'conference market' means grasping the core key to short-term trading in the cryptocurrency space.

The ETH crash at the April Web3 conference in Hong Kong, seemingly unexpected, was actually foreshadowed. At the time, the market was caught up in expectations of "regulatory clarity," leading many retail investors to chase the price higher. However, the conference didn't deliver any unexpected policy benefits; instead, it exposed a core weakness in the ETH ecosystem—slow progress in sharding scaling technology caused frequent network congestion, with gas fees soaring to a staggering 4300 yuan. Coupled with a high ICO failure rate and project teams dumping their holdings to cash out, the collapse in demand triggered a chain reaction, causing ETH to plummet from its high to 1388 yuan, perfectly illustrating the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" tactic in the cryptocurrency world. During this decline, institutional funds didn't blindly follow the trend; instead, they took the opportunity to accumulate retail investor holdings, laying the groundwork for a subsequent rebound.

The bull market surge at Singapore's TOKEN 2049 in October was the inevitable result of multiple positive factors converging. As Asia's and even the world's largest Web3 event, TOKEN 2049 in 2024 attracted 20,000 elites from over 150 countries. Leading institutions such as Binance and OKX were all present, and popular sectors like Solana and AI+blockchain were showcased. More importantly, the market was in a bull market cycle at the time, with continuous inflows of institutional funds. Bitcoin's market capitalization had exceeded 60%, and with nowhere else for incremental funds to go, the technological benefits and cooperation announcements released at the conference directly ignited FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment in the market. BTC, as a market bellwether, took the lead, breaking through the historical high of 126,000, and ETH also saw a strong rebound, confirming the rule that "in a bull market, major industry events often act as accelerators for market movements."

The "fall followed by a rise" pattern observed at the Dubai BBW conference in December showcased the sophisticated operational logic of current cryptocurrency funds. Initially, some short-term investors took profits, citing "excessive gains in the previous period," causing ETH to drop 10%. This was both a test of market sentiment and a necessary process of clearing out floating shares. However, as the conference progressed and substantial positive news such as the transformation of WEB2 enterprises to Web3 and the implementation of RWA (Real-Time Surface Automation) projects was disclosed, institutional funds began to re-enter the market, driving ETH to rebound quickly by 15%, forming a V-shaped reversal. This combination of "washout + rally" essentially reflects improved market efficiency—the cryptocurrency market is no longer a chaotic era of blindly following trends. Savvy traders utilize the implied volatility peaks before and after conferences for options arbitrage, while retail investors are repeatedly exploited by chasing highs and lows.

Behind the three conference rallies lie three undeniable new trends in the cryptocurrency market: First, conferences have become the core battleground for capital speculation, and the concentrated release of emotions in the short term inevitably leads to high volatility. As one of the most liquid mainstream coins, ETH naturally becomes a leader in volatility. Second, the driving logic of market rallies has shifted from "concept hype" to "value support." The rise from the Singapore conference stemmed from technological implementation and institutional recognition, while the fall from the Hong Kong conference exposed the shortcomings in the ecosystem. A rally without fundamental support is ultimately short-lived. Third, market differentiation is intensifying, highlighting Bitcoin's "safe haven" status. Currently, Bitcoin accounts for over 60%, while smaller coins have low profitability, and most new coins are destined to go to zero. The benefits of conference rallies are more concentrated in mainstream coins and leading projects in high-quality sectors.

For ordinary investors, instead of agonizing over whether the conference will inevitably lead to a rise or fall, it's better to master this replicable trading logic: Before the conference, be wary of bubbles caused by excessive expectations and avoid blindly chasing highs; during the conference, focus on core positive factors—policy guidance, technological breakthroughs, and institutional movements—rather than being distracted by noise; after the conference, pay attention to fund flows. If there's a breakout with increased volume, follow the trend; if there's a pullback with decreased volume, patiently wait for stabilization. Remember, the 2024 conference market has proven that opportunities in the cryptocurrency market are always hidden in volatility, but only those who understand the logic of fund flows can profit from 10-20% price swings, rather than becoming the "harvested韭菜" (a term for inexperienced investors who are easily exploited).

The bull market isn't over yet, but making money has become incredibly difficult. Future blockchain conferences will likely continue to exhibit characteristics of "high volatility and strong divergence." Only by respecting the market, following trends, and carefully selecting targets can one survive in this game of capital!