Expect further market consolidation, driven by complex factors beyond brief explanation, such as specific crypto-market dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, adoption rates, and product development. Recent over-exuberance suggests a need for market sobriety.
Predicting Bitcoin to potentially drop to $30-36K to establish a local bottom, with a possibility of dipping into the mid-to-high $20Ks before moving towards previous all-time highs. This journey will likely be tumultuous, with misleading rallies and a prolonged timeframe.
Patience remains crucial. If this assessment holds, expect other cryptocurrencies to decline more steeply in percentage terms compared to Bitcoin. Future market commentary may be limited, given the lack of reward for such predictions, especially without seeking fame. Regardless of the outcome, my long-term stance on investments remains unchanged.
Responding to the idea that we're just beginning this cycle, I generally concur. Having identified the cycle's bottom around November 2022, I maintain confidence in the enduring upward trend. My recent discussions focus on short-term peaks and troughs, not cycle-wide extremities.
However, it's important to acknowledge the recent formation and breakdown of the cycle's first parabolic trends, coupled with an uncertain macroeconomic landscape. While new innovations in the crypto space are promising, they are not fully realized yet. This doesn't imply a major reduction in risk, but rather a strategic recalibration and readiness.
