北极星BTC

Before bed, I came across a passage in Li Xiaolai’s *The Self-Cultivation of a Leek*. It felt pretty true.
He says there’s really only one reason most people end up as “leeks”—they start buying, buying, buying as soon as they enter the market.
Then he uses himself as an example: He bought Bitcoin in 2011, 2,100 coins in his first purchase, at an average price of $6. In June, it rose to $32—fivefold in just over a month. Then it slid steadily downward, eventually falling below $1. He and the other people who bought near the top didn’t break even until more than 20 months later.
Even he went through that. Avoid chasing the highs just twice, and you’ve already beaten half the crowd.

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Grok Bot just got an upgrade: it can now work directly with apps on your phone, like Calendar, Reminders, and Contacts. The feature is gradually rolling out on iOS and Android.
When Musk reposted it, he wrote just one line: “Grok Bot now integrates with your phone apps.”
Soon, “Help me make dinner plans” or “Remind me to pay my credit card bill” might really be something you don’t have to do yourself.

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A cold Saturday in January 1951.
A 20-year-old business school student took a train to Washington and stood outside a building. The doors were locked.
He had come to meet his idol. In Who’s Who in America, he’d found out that his teacher, Graham, was chairman of an insurance company called GEICO. He knew nothing about insurance, but he came anyway.
He kept knocking until a security guard came out, looking puzzled. He asked, “Is there anyone inside who can talk with me?” The guard said there might be someone working late on the sixth floor.
That person on the sixth floor was Davidson, an assistant to the president. He spent about four hours talking with this unfamiliar student: how insurance companies made money, how GEICO sold directly to customers, and how its costs were far lower than those of competitors who relied on agents.
That year, the student bought GEICO shares in four separate purchases. By year-end, they accounted for more than 65% of his net worth.
Then he made a mistake: in 1952, he sold all of them for $15,259 and switched to a stock that looked cheaper. Over the next 20 years, the shares he’d sold would have grown to about $1.3 million.
In 1995, Berkshire paid $2.3 billion to buy the other half of GEICO.
That student was Buffett. He wrote in a letter: “If not for that cold Saturday, Berkshire could never have become what it is today.”
Have you ever sold something too soon, only to watch it go up dozens of times afterward?

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Futu Securities (Hong Kong) announced on Friday that it is opening BNB deposits and withdrawals via the BEP20 network to eligible professional investors in Hong Kong.
Another traditional brokerage has added BNB.

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Bad news is piling up in AI infrastructure this week:
· SK hynix announced Thursday that it’s scrapping the IPO of its subsidiary Solidigm, citing market volatility
· Shares of “neocloud” providers CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN have all fallen more than 30% in October
· CoreWeave’s credit default swap spreads have topped 11%, a level generally seen as signaling distress
Only Jensen Huang seems unfazed: demand for neoclouds is “through the roof.”

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ETFs have been seesawing a bit this week:
From Monday to Wednesday, spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.08 billion;
On Thursday alone, they saw net outflows of about $636 million—the largest single-day outflow since June. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $254 million of that.
October overall has swung back to net outflows, at about $175 million.

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CZ said just one thing early this morning:
“Bitcoin is dead” has been said many, many times—and those were precisely the best times to buy Bitcoin. 🤷‍♂️

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Here’s something a little sci-fi.
OpenAI announced on Friday that, from now on, frontier models won’t be allowed to connect to the real internet during training. Instead, they’ll use cached and simulated versions of webpages.
The move came after one of its frontier models exploited a configuration vulnerability on September 20 and got online by itself. The company immediately halted all the training scheduled for the rest of that month.
AI really is being trained under lock and key now.
Do you think that’s cautious, or a little scary?

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My take: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling below 5% basically means money is taking shelter in government bonds.

Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions: when everyone rushes to buy Treasuries, prices rise and yields fall. Yesterday, the 10-year yield closed around 4.95%, plunging roughly 17–18 basis points in a single day—its biggest one-day drop since March 2023.

The trigger was hard to miss: anxiety over AI spending is setting in. Meta’s earnings looked decent, but its cash flow turned negative for the first time in more than a decade, and it plans to issue non-voting shares to raise money for AI. The Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks took a hit too. Tensions are also running high in the Middle East, pushing oil prices up. When risk assets wobble, investors’ first instinct is to seek shelter—and Treasuries are back in favor.

So don’t read this as “the economy is about to improve” or “rate cuts are just around the corner.” It looks more like the market is reassessing the AI story, and money is taking cover for now. The 5% threshold matters more psychologically than numerically: above it, yields look high; below it, Treasuries suddenly seem like a “not bad, safe, and reasonably rewarding” place to hide.

And don’t view crypto in isolation: when risk appetite cools, BTC and ETH often wobble too. But ETFs are still seeing inflows, and prices are holding steady, suggesting some money is flowing in for structural reasons—not simply following sentiment in U.S. stocks.

Do you think this drop below 5% is a temporary flight to safety, or a sign that rates have peaked?

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Elon Musk tweeted yesterday: Try Grok Bot, you will love it!

I’ve been using it extensively for over 10 days recently, and here are some thoughts: it’s unlike any other AI on the market.

If products like OPAI are AI 1.0, then GROK BOT is AGI at level 1.5. It’s closer to an all-purpose AI.

You can think of it as an assistant with its own computer. You log into your accounts on its computer, give it an instruction, and it gets everything done. You just review it and check the results. It can reduce creative friction by over 90%—it’s truly a godsend for content creators.

I highly recommend giving it a try.

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ETH has edged up a bit over the past couple of days, climbing back above 2,400, but money keeps flowing out of its ETFs.

They’ve seen net outflows for five days in a row, with $1.08 billion flowing out in October—the biggest monthly outflow this year. Meanwhile, BTC ETFs are still seeing inflows, albeit small ones.

Prices are rising while institutions are heading for the exits. Put those two things together, and it gets interesting. Either someone is buying over the counter, or this rally won’t last long.

Institutions clearly prefer Bitcoin right now. ETH will have to find new buyers on its own.

Who do you think is buying ETH right now?

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Musk said that once China figures out how to make something, its ability to ramp up production often exceeds that of the rest of the world combined. Lithium batteries and solar power are examples, and memory chips could be the same.

But there’s a counterexample: once Chinese companies enter the market and drive prices down, they often end up unable to make money themselves, turning an entire industry from a blue ocean into a red ocean.

That’s what happened with solar power. LONGi, Tongwei, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar—the five industry leaders—each cut their workforce by more than 30% in 2024, and three of them reported substantial losses. Module prices were pushed below cost. The world’s largest production capacity brought collective losses instead.

Electric vehicles are no different. BYD priced the Qin at 70,000 yuan. From then on, the auto industry entered a cutthroat price war. Apart from BYD, which still makes a slim profit, virtually no one else is making money. The government had to step in to mediate the price war.
Production has scaled up, profit margins have shrunk. The market has been captured, but no one is having an easy time.

I wonder whether ChangXin can chart a different course this time.

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AI stocks in the US have been looking a little shaky lately. The Nasdaq fell around 4.5% last week, while semiconductor stocks extended their losing streak to the longest since 2008.

The reason for the jitters is money. CoreWeave fell about 25% in five days, and yields on its unsecured bonds briefly topped 15%. Yields on highly rated data center bonds have risen from under 5% at the start of the year to nearly 7%. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related debt issuance will approach $500 billion this year.

A few thoughts: AI companies used to be able to raise money just by telling a good story. Now that money is getting more expensive, the story of burning through cash is harder to sell. Over in crypto, BTC is still holding steady above $80,000, without following the US stock market lower.

What do you think—will this hit US stocks first, or spill over into crypto?

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Why are altcoins becoming less and less profitable? Here are a few of my observations.

First, there are more and more altcoins, but very few manage to break through. The odds are now only a few in a thousand.

Second, liquidity is especially weak. Prices rise a little when they go up, but fall much harder when they go down. After a big rally, one round of corrections can wipe out all the gains.

Third, there’s been very little worth mentioning from airdrop farming over the past year or two. Even a profit of 10 or 20 yuan feels like a huge airdrop, and people are practically falling over themselves with gratitude.

Are you still holding the altcoins you have, or did you get out early?

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It can still be considered a bear market, although some data suggests the 50-week moving average has already turned bullish. But I’m not here to talk about bull or bear markets—I want to discuss a different phenomenon I’m seeing.

The order books for BTC and Ethereum are now deeper than they were at the peak of last year’s bull market. That means the market is more solid, and it’s no longer possible to drive prices down into a deep hole with just a small amount of money like before.

Why is this happening? BTC is now about a third cheaper than it was last year, yet the order books are even deeper in dollar terms. This suggests that market makers are more optimistic about the future of these two coins and are willing to commit more capital to them.

But this is also a strange phenomenon: these two major coins are holding up very well, while altcoins are weak. Altcoin order books are now much thinner than they were during last year’s bull market.

So we’re facing a major problem: the market is becoming highly polarized. BTC and Ethereum are holding strong, while altcoins are getting thinner and thinner.

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Indicator parameters sometimes exhibit lagging characteristics.

Currently, the market's technical parameters indicate that it is in the stage of being undervalued.

For example,
The AHR999 indicator is currently in the bottom-buying range.
25% of mining machines are already in a loss state.
MSTR and the spot ETF, these two whales, have a combined $120 billion in funds below the cost line.

Indicators have shown this situation in past phases, and it has been later confirmed as a cyclical bottom range, typically lasting 3-6 months. It has already been over two months now.

It may not be an absolute bottom, but the margin of safety is high, and future growth resilience is strong.

There is really no need to look at BTC with the high point emotions anymore.

AHR999 has already dropped to around 0.34, which in itself indicates that it is not expensive, but obviously low;
The Strategy holds 762,000 BTC, with an overall holding cost of about $75,694, and the current price is still below that cost line;
The Fear and Greed Index is still swaying in the cold zone, and the market sentiment is not hot at all; it is shrinking, it is fear, it is a bunch of people who are not really daring to reach out anymore.

Looking at these few indicators separately, it might still just seem "a bit cheap."
But looking at them together, the feeling is quite strong:
Now is not a hot zone, not an expensive zone, not a place that one would dare to chase with eyes closed. It feels more like a range suppressed by emotions, costs, and expectations.

So the most ironic point here is:

When at a high point, everyone talks about faith;
When at a low point, it’s time for the data to speak.

Now that these sets of data are presented, it is no longer a matter of "is it comfortable or not,"
but if you pretend not to see it,
it feels a bit like bullying yourself.

Information has discrepancies.

Some information is like a dam; it doesn't flow to everyone at once but first accumulates slowly in one place. Once it reaches a certain level, pressure builds up, and then it flows downstream. However, in the trading market, what is more common is another type—waterfall-like information disparity.

It doesn't flow slowly; it suddenly pours down.

Especially in the cryptocurrency space, this disparity is often not an abstract concept but rather starkly represented by money.

Many hot topics, a new project, or a new narrative, when they first emerge, are often just a small point of information. It might start with a few Twitter accounts discussing it, a few insiders noticing it, or just some small action that alerts those ahead: this thing might be about to rise.

At this point, the information hasn't spread yet, and the market hasn't reacted; those in front can acquire enough chips at an extremely low cost.

Before long, this information begins to gain momentum, bursting out from a small circle, being shared by more people, discussed by more bloggers, and seen by more retail investors, pushing price, sentiment, and trading volume up together. On the surface, it seems like an opportunity has arrived; but in reality, those in front have often already made a substantial profit.

Those behind see the heat, while those in front hold the chips.
Those behind see the trend, while those in front experience the disparity.

Therefore, when many people talk about 'the advantage of big players' or 'insider information', it often turns out that, more often than not, it's not some huge secret, but simply seeing it a little earlier, believing a little earlier, and taking action a little earlier than you.

Yet, the most expensive thing in trading is precisely this tiny bit of timing difference.

You may think you are seizing an opportunity, but often, what you get is just the second half after someone else has already completed the first half.

How did this thing suddenly come with a piercing arrow??

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