How to screen potential currencies?
1. How to screen coins with hundredfold potential?
Guideline:
① The fundamentals are good and the stock belongs to a hot sector, preferably a leader in the sector;
② Have good narrative skills and ecological sustainable development;
③The market value cannot be too large
2. Three things not to do when planning long-term altcoins;
1: Don’t buy stocks with too large a market value that have already exploded. If the market value of stocks that have already exploded is too large, there is a high probability that they will decline after their peak, and there is a high possibility that they will be replaced in the next round.
2: Don’t invest in stocks with low market value and no narrative ability. You may say that they may grow into a shib in the future, but you should know that there were thousands of local dogs in the last round, but only one shib came out. The rest were all people who were cut to pieces, so don’t gamble on such things with extremely low probability.
3: Don’t buy those with old-fashioned concepts. The cryptocurrency circle always speculates on new things rather than old ones. If you can choose new ones, try to choose new ones. Most of the old ones have locked-in positions.
3. With the arrival of Bitcoin halving, some of the varieties with 10-100 times the base price are listed;
①L2 track: ARB
Current total: 1.027 billion
Peak valuation: around 160 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. Currently, TVL ranks 4th and it ranks first in all data in the L2 track. Its public chain ETH is the absolute king, and ARB is the king on ETH. It also has the most popular native protocols. After the Cancun upgrade, the transaction fee has dropped significantly, and the ecology is more prosperous. It is the most worthy investment in the L2 sector.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium-low risk, medium-high return
3. Valuation logic: According to the public chain valuation method, the valuation of the top L2 can reach 6-20% of the public chain. Here we take 10% for calculation, which is 10% of Ethereum's 1.6 trillion. ARB's peak valuation in the bull market in 2025 may reach 160 billion.
②L2 track: OP
Current total: 4.3 billion
Peak valuation: around 90 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. Currently, it is second only to ARB in the L2 sector and ranks 6th in TVL. The ecosystem is developing rapidly. Coinbase's layer 2 network has also chosen OP. It is also benefited by the Cancun upgrade and has very good prospects for future development.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium-low risk, medium-high return
3. Valuation logic: According to the public chain valuation method, the valuation of the top L2 can reach 6-20% of the public chain. Here we take 6% for calculation, 6% of Ethereum's 1.6 trillion, OP's valuation at the peak of the bull market in 2025 may reach 96 billion. 6% of Ethereum's 1.6 trillion, OP's valuation at the peak of the bull market in 2025 may reach 96 billion.
③LSD track: LDO
The current total amount is 1.4 billion
Peak valuation of 10 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. LSD is the leader in the track and dominates the market. The ETH pledge rate will definitely continue to rise in the next two years. If nothing unexpected happens, LDO will continue to maintain its leading advantage and seize more market share.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: It is not too much for the leader of the track to reach 3% of the total market value of Ethereum at the peak of the bull market, 1600x0.03=48 billion
④NFT track: BLUR
The current total amount is 3 billion
Peak valuation of 30 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. A dark horse in the NFT sector, currently ranked first in transaction volume. The market size of NFT could reach hundreds of billions in 2025. BLUR currently combines trading and lending, and has a promising future.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: In 2021, the valuation of opensea reached 13 billion. Now BLUR's ranking has surpassed opensea. The peak valuation of the bull market in 2025 is expected to reach 30 billion.
⑤DEFI track: FXS
Current total: 421 million
Peak valuation of 10 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. It has its own exchange and stablecoin, and now it is competing in the LSD market. All sectors are developing well and the data is good.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: It is the first in the stable track. Stable currency and LSD tracks are both hot tracks in the next bull market, with a valuation of 10 billion
⑥ Storage track: AR
Current total: 129 million
Peak valuation of 10 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. The storage sector is currently ranked second. Compared with FIL, which ranks first, the circulation volume is large enough, and there are fewer chips to unlock and smash the market in the later stage. AR performed well in the bull market in 2021 and its business developed smoothly.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: The highest price in the bull market in 2021 was US$90, but the circulation data at that time could not be found, and the total market value was unknown. However, referring to the market value of FIL in 2021, it reached 50 billion, so the valuation of AR in 2025 is 10 billion.
⑦Web3+AI track: WLD
Current total: 154 million
Peak valuation: 3 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. This is the coin created by Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, called Wordcoin, or WLD for short. If you don't know OpenAI, you must have heard of Chatgpt, which is currently the world's top AI intelligence. The vision of the WLD project is to make digital currency a part of daily life and create a WEB3 application that may have the largest number of users. The optimism about WLD is not blind optimism, but based on its innovative technology and unique market positioning. WorldCoin is doing an extremely great social experiment, and AI is changing the production relations and distribution patterns of the entire society.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium risk, medium to high return
⑧AI track: RNDR
Current total: 646 million
Peak valuation: 30-50 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. RNDR is the world's largest distributed GPU computing and 3D market. Google and Microsoft have joined the RNDR rendering network and have established partnerships with many leading media and technology companies, from Apple, NVIDIA, Epic Games, Unity to Disney, Discovery and HBO. The construction of the second-layer network will effectively improve the use scenarios and frequency of RNDR. By processing data through the on-chain Polygon second-layer network, low handling fees and faster block data confirmation speed can be achieved. It will help improve the use scenarios of RNDR.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, high return
3. Valuation logic: With the access of high-definition video and AR technology, coupled with the recent hot AI concept, the demand for GPU computing power will reach an unprecedented level in the future. The RNDR network will be a good solution, and the RNDR token, as a cryptocurrency to pay for rendering fees, will be in great demand. The valuation of RNDR may reach 30-50 billion.
⑨Decentralized derivatives exchange track: GNS
Current total: 30.43 million Peak valuation: 10 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. It has many asset categories and low fees. It has strong advantages over GMX, with rapid data growth and stable returns. It has access to RWA assets and NFT-enabled gameplay. The current price is low, and there is great room for future growth. It also has a repurchase and destruction model, and is expected to move towards a deflationary path.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, high return
3. Valuation logic: Still according to the top protocol valuation method, 6% of the public chain ARB, then the valuation of the next bull market can reach 10 billion
⑩Public chain track: KAS
Current total: 731 million
Peak valuation: 10 billion
Peak price: 0.38
Bottom price: 0.01 or less
Reasons for optimism:
1. Security, scalability, and decentralization have achieved the best balance in the impossible triangle. KAS uses POW mining to achieve BTC-like security, GHOSTDAG protocol technology to achieve high block rate, and POW mining mechanism to achieve decentralization. After Ethereum switched to POS, KAS took over 43% of Ethereum's computing power. The mining income is currently the highest in the entire network. Bitmain is also going to release KAS professional mining machines. KAS is expected to become a new force in the POW field. The top cryptography team, an Israeli Jewish project, the community is very united, and the current number of mining nodes and miners is growing rapidly. With the increase in users, the application ecology on it is expected to prosper.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: POW series coins require huge investments of real money and silver. Mining equipment and energy consumption are all costs of the coin price. Here I use LTC as a benchmark for valuation. In the next bull market, LTC should be able to reach a market value of 50 billion, and KAS is expected to reach one-fifth of LTC, 10 billion.
11. Cross-chain track: STG
Current total: 1 billion
Peak valuation: 10 billion
Top price: 10
Bottom price: 0.25-0.5
Reasons to be optimistic:
1. It solves the problem of the impossible triangle of cross-chain and is the best choice for cross-chain solutions. In the context of the multi-chain universe, cross-chain is a rigid product in the future with low price. For early investors, the holding cost ranges from 0.25 to 0.5 US dollars.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: In the bull market of 2025, there will be projects with a market value of over 10 billion US dollars in the cross-chain sector, and STG will be the leader of the sector.
12. DID track: LIT
Current total: 25.26 million
Peak valuation: 5 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. Binance Launchpool 16th project. In Binance's history, IDO-related projects have performed well in historical data. The launch of ID Hub Alpha in the first quarter of 2023 will be a major upgrade. The cornerstone of the future DEFI SUMMER, the DID identity and reputation system infrastructure in the credit field. It is expected to obtain higher valuations and returns in the next cycle.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, high return
3. Valuation logic: In the 2021 bull market, the highest price of LIT was 36 US dollars. The circulation data at that time could not be found. However, based on historical data and experience, high-quality projects are likely to break through the previous high in the next bull market. Therefore, I gave a valuation of 5 billion, with a unit price of 50 US dollars.
13. Game public chain track: WEMIX
Current total: 132 million
Peak valuation: 10-30 billion
Reasons for optimism:
1. WEMIX is a blockchain game development platform under WEMADE. WEMADE is a game company that has served the game market for more than 20 years. The company has more than 40 well-known game IPs, including the well-known 3A masterpiece [Legend], with more than 500 million users. Traditional game companies have transformed and have super traffic. They have deep talent reserves and marketing strength. They have experienced rebirth after Nirvana. There was a market crash in November 2022. This scandal also caused WEMIX to lose 80% of its market value. After this incident, its chairman made relevant explanations and apologies, and the token model of new games launched later was also made more open.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, medium to high return
3. Valuation logic: Games are the track with a market value of hundreds of billions in the next bull market. The valuation of a top-level game public chain should be between 10 billion and 30 billion, with a middle value of 20 billion.
14. DEFI protocol track: CNC
Current total: 5.91 million
Peak valuation: 3 billion
Reasons to be optimistic:
1. CNC is a liquidity solution for CRV. It is a product that is in urgent need of the CRV ecosystem and is the biological child of CRV. The price is low enough, the market value is low, the total number of tokens is small, the total amount is 10 million, and the TVL is greater than FDV, which is very cost-effective. CRV, CVX, and CNC are the three pillars of the ecological flywheel, which is conducive to the generation of synergistic effects.
2. Risk and return coefficient: medium to high risk, high return
3. Valuation logic: CRV is the second largest DEX after UNI, and its valuation in the next round can reach 30 billion. CNC, as the son of CRV and an important liquidity protocol, is expected to reach 10% of CRV in the next round. Therefore, I gave a valuation of 3 billion US dollars.