The logical loopholes in the theory of no bull market in 24 and 25 years: Dabai saw such a heartfelt comment on Twitter and found it quite interesting. What do you think?
1.
Look at the annual lines of the candle chart for technical analysis and predict that there will be no bull market in 2024 and 25. Logical loophole: Bitcoin has had a total of 14 annual lines since its birth in 2009. As long as you have elementary school level knowledge of statistics, you will know that any rules drawn from such a small sample have no practical usability.
2.
Single-factor mechanical determinism believes that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle determines everything in the crypto market, and the two have a fixed linear relationship. Logical loophole: We can regard the U.S. dollar index as a quantitative indicator of the Federal Reserve’s monetary cycle. In theory, the U.S. dollar index should be negatively correlated with Bitcoin, which is considered a high-risk asset, but today the correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the Bitcoin index is 0.71, and the two are positively correlated.
Don’t forget Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision. Bitcoin is a hedge against the legal currency system (the core is the US dollar system). The crisis of the legal currency system is not entirely a crisis of the encryption system, but also an opportunity for the encryption system.
Bitcoin has the duality of risky assets and safe-haven assets, which was vividly demonstrated during the U.S. banking crisis in March this year.
This is why top traditional fund companies such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity suddenly began to hurriedly apply for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the middle of the year.
3.
A financial crisis will break out in the United States in 2024 or 25, so the crypto market will enter a bear market. Logical loophole: It is now expected that a full-scale financial crisis will break out in the U.S. economy in 2024 or 25. This is a fantasy based on emotions, not data and facts. .
This round of the United States is moving from stagflation to recession, but judging from various public economic data, the 24-year recession will be a mild recession. This is also one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve is reluctant to exit the interest rate policy cycle.
And even if it encounters a black swan, the Federal Reserve only needs to restart quantitative easing + lower the benchmark interest rate to zero to deal with it.
Judging from the Fed's response to the U.S. banking crisis in March and the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in June this year, they are already familiar with handling crises.
However, the massive release of money after the crisis will actually contribute to the largest increase in the bull market cycle of the crypto market.
In short, we must maintain a sense of awe when predicting long-term market conditions.
For us today, the future market is a vast ocean full of complexity, nonlinearity, and chaos. Any simple answer is wrong
#一起来跟单 #注意资金安全
1.
Look at the annual lines of the candle chart for technical analysis and predict that there will be no bull market in 2024 and 25. Logical loophole: Bitcoin has had a total of 14 annual lines since its birth in 2009. As long as you have elementary school level knowledge of statistics, you will know that any rules drawn from such a small sample have no practical usability.
2.
Single-factor mechanical determinism believes that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle determines everything in the crypto market, and the two have a fixed linear relationship. Logical loophole: We can regard the U.S. dollar index as a quantitative indicator of the Federal Reserve’s monetary cycle. In theory, the U.S. dollar index should be negatively correlated with Bitcoin, which is considered a high-risk asset, but today the correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the Bitcoin index is 0.71, and the two are positively correlated.
Don’t forget Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision. Bitcoin is a hedge against the legal currency system (the core is the US dollar system). The crisis of the legal currency system is not entirely a crisis of the encryption system, but also an opportunity for the encryption system.
Bitcoin has the duality of risky assets and safe-haven assets, which was vividly demonstrated during the U.S. banking crisis in March this year.
This is why top traditional fund companies such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity suddenly began to hurriedly apply for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the middle of the year.
3.
A financial crisis will break out in the United States in 2024 or 25, so the crypto market will enter a bear market. Logical loophole: It is now expected that a full-scale financial crisis will break out in the U.S. economy in 2024 or 25. This is a fantasy based on emotions, not data and facts. .
This round of the United States is moving from stagflation to recession, but judging from various public economic data, the 24-year recession will be a mild recession. This is also one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve is reluctant to exit the interest rate policy cycle.
And even if it encounters a black swan, the Federal Reserve only needs to restart quantitative easing + lower the benchmark interest rate to zero to deal with it.
Judging from the Fed's response to the U.S. banking crisis in March and the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in June this year, they are already familiar with handling crises.
However, the massive release of money after the crisis will actually contribute to the largest increase in the bull market cycle of the crypto market.
In short, we must maintain a sense of awe when predicting long-term market conditions.
For us today, the future market is a vast ocean full of complexity, nonlinearity, and chaos. Any simple answer is wrong
#一起来跟单 #注意资金安全
