If you can’t analyze it, just look at the macro picture and use the macro picture to judge the cryptocurrency world. Let me show you.

It is the beginning of October 2023. Let us first judge where Bitcoin has gone. The bull market that started in January 2023 has come to an end. In fact, people who are sensitive to the market should have judged that the market has come to an end in early July, instead of judging it now. In fact, the currency circle can be divided into two trend markets, one is a decline and the other is an increase. Sideways fluctuations are mixed in between the two. In human terms, when the time is ripe, we will catch the bulls and work hard until the bulls collapse, and then start the upward trend. We will catch the air forces and work hard until the air forces collapse, and repeat this over and over again. This wave of bulls in 2023 is very similar to that in 2019, except that one is an incremental bull and the other is a stock bull. Therefore, the bull K-line in 2023 looks super ugly, and it is super difficult to make money. We are now in the stage of working hard on the bulls, because next year will be halved. Everyone agrees that the dealer does not want to let the leeks get on the bus, and can only make the bulls collapse and hand over the chips in the remaining time.

Then we look at the external environment. The internal rift between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States may lead to a shutdown of the US government. As for how it is caused, I am too lazy to lay out the deep-seated reasons. I will give you the conclusion directly. The probability of a shutdown is 99.99%. Just look at the US stock market, which is shaky and looks like a great summer that is about to collapse. So I guess that the US stock market may cooperate with the government shutdown in October and fall. Bitcoin will definitely follow at that time. In terms of liquidity, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to be high and sideways, and continues to absorb liquidity. A large number of corporate bonds will mature in September, and continued financing will absorb market liquidity. In addition, there is a big thunder in Japan. If it withdraws from the YCC policy, it is equivalent to a disguised interest rate hike. Funds from all over the world will flow back to Japan, and a large amount of liquidity will continue to be absorbed. And think about why Japan has leaked that it may choose to withdraw from the YCC at this point in time at the end of the year. In short, liquidity is very poor now. What can be used to pull the market? Pull the market against the recession? 6 Ah, the dealer is much smarter than you.

Finally, you return to the cryptocurrency world. High returns mean high risks. Now the reservoir of the U.S. stock market is almost empty. The cryptocurrency world, the younger brother of the U.S. stock market, is almost dry. The external market has plummeted. Why is Bitcoin rising? Are the dealers sending you warmth and carrying you a sedan chair?