To be honest, accumulation and traps are often only a thin line apart. For this round of $TICKER, I choose to take sides with the trap side—not let my emotions run the show. As the chart has developed so far, on the four-hour timeframe it has been following a converging structure throughout. Volume hasn’t expanded noticeably, yet every time price dips, it gets picked up. This kind of shrinking-volume pullback formation—honestly—looks more like the main force is accumulating at low levels, not distributing. If it were true distribution, the rebound wouldn’t be so soft and gentle; it should have broken down much earlier.
On the other hand, now there are plenty of voices calling for shorting in the market, and the reasons are basically just that it has risen too much and it should pull back.
But look at the weekly chart: after this rally, it didn’t really give any chance for a deep correction. Instead, sideways consolidation replaced a drop—by itself, that’s a sign of strength. Plus, overseas sentiment has only just started to recover, and funds haven’t truly formed an outright consensus force yet. In this situation, betting on a big drop doesn’t make sense in terms of risk-to-reward. I’d rather wait for a signal of a breakout with increasing volume—slow is fine, because it’s better than repeatedly getting hit in a trap.
My view is that this round of the structure hasn’t finished yet, and most likely there will be another acceleration phase afterward.
Instead of guessing the top, follow the trend. As long as key support doesn’t break, pullbacks are opportunities. Of course, I’m not a dead-bull either: if one day volume expands unusually but price stalls, then I’ll reassess. But at least right now, what the chart is telling me is this—someone is quietly accumulating, while most people are still hesitating. In times like this, I choose to trust the structure, not the noise.
To survey the vastness of the mountains and seas; to observe the market’s subtle changes.
Walk alongside Uncle Xiong, and see every day’s gains and losses.
#TICKER
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