Due to the stoppage of the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which has been ongoing since the end of January 2026, the Russian Federation is forced to reorient its flows.
Statistics indicate a significant increase in sea exports: in the first half of February alone, daily shipments from ports increased by 480 thousand barrels, reaching a rate of 3.39 million barrels per day.
This growth directly compensates for the loss of transit through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia.
The main volume is currently directed to the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse, from where oil is picked up by tankers of the 'shadow fleet' for delivery to Asia. However, such logistics are more expensive due to the increased transportation distance and the need to provide deeper discounts to new buyers.
The situation is exacerbated by recent attacks on pumping stations in the Russian Federation, which forced Transneft to reduce oil intake into the system by 250 thousand barrels per day.
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