mesa

$MINA will execute the Mesa mainnet upgrade on September 3: the slot time will be shortened to 90 seconds, and on-chain state, events, and the capacity of a single zkApp will be increased. In the future, hard forks will also be automated. The market has priced in upgrade expectations in advance, with a nearly 30-day rise of about 57%.

This will reduce application complexity and upgrade friction, but adoption has not yet proceeded. Before the upgrade, in the archived samples available, the average daily number of user transactions is about 750, and zkApp calls about 65—roughly the same as in the previous window. In the same period, among the 90-day spot trades, the median volume is only 37% of the one-year baseline, yet the 30-day price has already risen by about 57%.

After MINA’s fifth year, the default inflation will be about 7%. Any added capacity must be converted into sustained application usage, fees, or holder growth; only then can it potentially offset dilution. There is currently no trading advantage or long-term advantage, so there will be no positioning/investment.

For 30 to 90 days after the upgrade, only transactions and zkApp are validated to be simultaneously up by 30% versus the baseline. If the upgrade is delayed or activity declines by 20%, the improved assumptions will no longer hold.

#MINA #Mesa #zkApps #Tokenomics

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