$M 24 hours, up 26%, with a low of 0.879. It touched 1.166 at 8 p.m., and futures trading volume was about $19.5 million. On the surface, it looks like a clean breakout, but Binance futures open interest rose from 4.48 million tokens at 4 p.m. to 5.04 million at 8 p.m.—as the price surged, positions actually increased by 560,000 tokens. That’s the twist: people were adding longs as the price rose.
The share of retail accounts going long climbed from 62.7% in the afternoon to 65% at 6 p.m., and is still hovering around 64%. By position size, large traders’ long positions have stayed near 59% since last night, barely moving. Retail is chasing; large traders aren’t following. All eleven funding-rate intervals during the day were pinned to the +0.005% floor. Then, at 8 p.m., the rate suddenly jumped to +0.0208%, quadrupling the amount longs have to pay—the late-arriving longs are starting to pay rent. Anyone opening a new long near the top, or catching a falling knife halfway up, will have to learn the hard way within this range.
The two hourly candles from 7 to 8 p.m. saw a combined futures trading volume of over $8.5 million, nearly half the day’s total. Technically, the 1-hour RSI reached 77.9, and the price hit the 1-hour Bollinger upper band at 1.164. The MACD histogram is still expanding, at +0.017, while the 1-hour EMA12 is at 1.057. The 8 p.m. hourly candle touched 1.166, then plunged back to 1.065. The upper band has now been tested; it’s not as if nobody tried to defend it.
I’m treating the Bollinger upper band at 1.166 as the ceiling reached today, not as the start of a new trend. Until open interest first falls back below 4.5 million tokens and the share of long accounts drops below 60%, chasing buyers will keep providing oxygen for a rebound. First, watch the 1.065 low on the 8 p.m. candle. To change my view, I’d need to see the funding rate return close to the floor while the price holds above the Bollinger middle band at 0.989. These are my personal views.
#M #合约持仓 #FundingRate