$MVLL After dropping from the high of 29 with 29 blocks, a four-hour long bearish candle with a long upper wick formed. Trading volume was 746 million, directly swallowing up half of the previous days’ gains.
First, the chart signals. Over the past five days, this stock surged from 19 straight to 29, with a gain of nearly 50%. During the rally, volume kept expanding. In the segment from 24 to 27, a single 4-hour candle saw volume jump to 958 million, more than four times the early average volume. This is a classic capital-driven pulse. But the price couldn’t hold at the top—after the needle at 29.03, it turned around immediately. Three consecutive bearish candles pulled back to around 26. Short-term long power has run out, so don’t chase here.
As for market sentiment: the funding rate is 0%, meaning neither bulls nor bears are adding leverage to fight it out; the game is relatively rational. However, the marked price at 26.06 closely matches the transaction price, with no clear tilt between bulls and bears. Retail investors see the story of a jump from 19 to 29 and want to rush in; experienced players already unloaded their shares on that needle at 29. What remains in the market is most likely trapped positions from people who just got onboard. Sentiment is rather cold.
The actions of big players: the long lower wick at 18.23 was a turning point. At that time, 4-hour trading volume was 626 million—the largest among all candles before. Someone was aggressively accumulating during the plunge. Then the price kept rising all the way to 29 without backing off. But note: big players don’t do this out of kindness. They sold the inventory once they pushed it to 29. Now, with the pullback to 26, this range is likely where they’re conducting a second distribution. 24.54 to 25.20 is the first support/holding zone. Below that, 22.24 is the earlier dense trading area—the spot where big capital might start rebuilding positions again.
Volume-price structure: from 29.03 down to 26.06, the sell-off came with expanding volume, while rebounds came with shrinking volume. The most recent three 4-hour candles: the first fell to 26.44, rebounded to 28.17, and closed at 26.25, with volume 1.98 billion; the second tested 25.20, rebounded to 28.17, and closed at 26.25, with volume nearly 2.0 billion; the latest candle oscillated narrowly between 25.99 and 27.07, with volume only 318 million—clearly contracting. When volume shrinks to this extent, it suggests both bulls and bears are waiting for direction. Overhead pressure is concentrated in the 28–29 range, where a lot of chase-buy shares are trapped; pushing higher won’t be easy. Below, 25.20 is the prior low—break it and the move likely heads toward 23.
Candlestick details: the latest three candles are worth close attention. First, a long upper wick—the price surged to 28.17 and was knocked back, closing near the low. Second, an even longer upper wick—the price again reached 28.17 and was knocked back, closing at 26.25. Two consecutive failed attempts to攻 the same level means above 28 has become like a “copper wall and iron barrier.” The latest candle’s real body shrank to within about 1 dollar of range, and volume shrank by more than 80%. This is a prelude to a trend change. After a shrinking-volume doji, either there will be a high-volume bullish breakout above 28, or a high-volume bearish breakdown below 25.20. Right now, downside probability looks higher, because the trapped float at the high is too heavy, and the main force has no reason to act as a “live public servant.”
Nini’s plan: at the current price of 26.06, I won’t buy more. Wait for two signals: (1) a high-volume breakdown below 25.20—go short with the trend, targeting around 23.30; (2) a pullback to stabilize around 22.24 followed by a high-volume bullish candle—consider going long. If neither is met, stay in cash and watch. This stock has big volatility, so keep position size at half of usual.
#MVLL #Meme #HighVolatility