📈 Bitcoin and its cycles: What does market history reveal?
Bitcoin has completed four major cycles since 2011, and the data shows an interesting trend: bullish returns are getting smaller, while bearish corrections have been less severe.
📊 Main Bitcoin cycles:
• 2011–2013: from US$2.01 to US$1,163 (+57,761%)
• 2015–2017: from US$152 to US$19,892 (+12,956%)
• 2018–2021: from US$3,122 to US$68,790 (+2,103%)
• 2022–2025: from US$15,476 to US$126,198 (+715%)
📉 Corrections after each all-time high:
• 2014: −86.9%
• 2018: −84.3%
• 2022: −77.5%
• 2026 (statistical projection): ≈−73%, which would imply a price near US$34,000 if the historical pattern continued.
📈 The reduction in drawdowns has been consistent across the three complete cycles analyzed, leading some analysts to consider that Bitcoin may continue to show less severe bearish markets as liquidity and institutional participation increase. However, this outlook is only an extrapolation based on historical data and is not a prediction.
📌 History can serve as a reference for understanding Bitcoin’s behavior, but factors such as monetary policy, spot Bitcoin ETFs, regulation, and the macroeconomic context may make the next cycle very different from the previous ones.
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