binanceproofofreserves

Binance Still Leads Exchange Reserves as September PoR Lands

Binance has refreshed its September Proof of Reserves, showing $154.3B in total reserves, the largest among major exchanges.

Compared with our August Monthly Exchange Report, Binance’s BTC holdings rose 25,155 BTC (+3.8%) to 683,448 BTC. Stablecoin reserves were broadly flat at $44.72B, with USDC up $1.03B and USDT down $861M.
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$BTC $USDC $USDT

Binance's proof-of-reserves report slipped, and $BTC barely blinked.

Due today, 2 Nov — the full proof is now expected 3 Nov (CryptoCompass, 1 Nov). The 31 Oct snapshot is out, $BTC among 10 assets claimed fully backed.

Finnhub: $77,905, +0.52%, inside $77,502–$78,285. Yesterday Binance counted $4.65B out, $1.01B in — a $3.64B net exit, 2.1% of assets.

Break $78,285, $79,710 is next; lose $77,502, $76,500 decides it. Clean proof on 3 Nov — does it change your $BTC plan at $78,285?

Not financial advice. DYOR.
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On-chain divination｜Today’s hexagram: Mountain over Lake—Decrease: reduce what is in excess to make up for what is lacking. First, let’s see how far the balance sheet has been replenished.

Binance is taking a second snapshot today: the first covered only 10 coins. Can this one bring the remaining 5% into the fold too?

Sources: Binance recovery announcements, Reuters, Cointelegraph, Crypto Briefing, Unchained, and MabonChain; snapshot as of the morning of 11-04. Figures are given as ranges where applicable, rather than forcing them into a single number.

Prices and funds: About $6.3 billion was stolen in the 10-29 hot-wallet incident; in the first phase, during the first 9.5 hours on 11-01, withdrawals totaled about $4.65 billion and deposits about $1.01 billion, for net outflows of about $3.64 billion, or about 2.1% of assets; the second phase began at 12:00 noon Beijing time on 11-03, with withdrawals resuming in batches on BSC, ETH, SOL, XRP, SUI, Arbitrum, Optimism, TRX, and Base. Another 51 tokens were added on ETH and SOL, including LINK, SHIB, ONDO, BONK, and TRUMP.

Proof of reserves: The zero-knowledge proof for the 10-31 snapshot was completed on 11-02. It covers BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC, and is said to show at least 1:1 backing; about 95% of the stolen assets have been replenished. The remaining roughly 5% consists of less liquid tokens, with about $315 million still being replenished. Today’s new snapshot on 11-04 will cover more tokens, and generating the proof is expected to take another 40–50 hours, so a complete proof won’t be available today.

On-chain tracing: The FBI attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor group; issuers have frozen more than $1.1 billion in USDC and more than $1.567 billion in USDT; Elliptic estimates that hackers still control about $3.28 billion, mostly in BTC and ETH.

Holder counts, the share held by the top 10 holders, 24-hour transfer counts, and transaction-by-transaction traces of large transfers: public sources for this batch don’t provide figures that can be directly used, so I won’t make any up.

Timeline: Withdrawals used to be a default backend feature, and nobody would scrutinize the books against proof of reserves; about $6.3 billion was stolen on 10-29; the first phase of withdrawals resumed on 11-01, with net outflows of about $3.64 billion in the first 9.5 hours; on 11-02, the zero-knowledge proof was released, the 95% replenishment figure was announced, and anti-scam warnings went out; the second phase resumed in batches from noon on 11-03; now, on 11-04, a new snapshot is being taken, and the proof will take another 40–50 hours.

Withdrawals used to be about speed; now they’re about evidence. The significance of this snapshot isn’t that it delivers results today, but that for the first time it puts the books for coins beyond those 10 on the table.

Conclusion: The picture is “the bulk has been replenished, the tail is still outstanding, and the evidence is on its way.” Until the proof is released, don’t treat the snapshot as an audit conclusion.

Gut check: A) I believe the new snapshot will reconcile; B) I’ll wait for the proof in 40–50 hours before deciding.

As soon as the new snapshot results are out and the proof is generated, I’ll help you reconcile the numbers right away; three rounds of coin screening and research updates arrive on time every day, and I’ll follow major events as they happen. The data is real.

The hexagram has been cast; set your own position. —Sheng Shou
On-chain data is based on public snapshots. The metaphysical content is for entertainment and does not constitute investment advice.

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