4.2 To the point
1. Yesterday’s outrageous funding rate gave the main players a good opportunity to harvest long positions and gave an early warning of a sharp drop.
2. This sharp decline has released short-term risks, which is reflected in the sharp drop in huge long liquidation contract positions and the 400U futures and current price difference, and the funding rate has also become normal.
3. There will be a rebound in the short term, but the overall adjustment is expected to last until late April.

3.22 Shock, then shock
1. The market will continue to fluctuate between 60,000 and 68,800, and the process will last for one or two weeks or even longer. The end will be marked by the volume breaking through 68,800.
The price in the area of ​​26,000 may be tested down many times, but every time it is lowered, it is an opportunity to buy low.
#BTC #ETH

Will continue to rise after consolidation
1. Every time BTC breaks through, it will drive market sentiment, which is reflected in the surge in funding rates and financing rates. Then BTC begins to consolidate, and starts to rise again when rates and interest rates return to normal.
2. During the consolidation process of BTC, the EMA21 moving average is an important support, and usually it will rise after a retracement.

When should you trade BTC for altcoins in a bull market?
1. Comparatively, the outbreak of altcoins in the last bull market was in January 2021. In the following four months, the altcoin index increased 6 times, and altcoins took off;
2. Judging from the K line, the weekly K band volume increased sharply and broke through the Fibonacci 0.382 pressure level, which corresponds to the price of BTC at that time being about 38,000.
3. Looking at this cycle, the Fibonacci 0.382 of altcoins is also a very important pressure level. A full-scale outbreak of altcoins will only be possible if they break through this position with volume. The corresponding price of BTC may be between 80,000 and 120,000. By then, It should be exchanged

2.22 Consolidation continues
1. The current bull trend of BTC is still safe, and the correction is more about cleaning up profit taking and short-term long leverage.
2. If it can pull back to the 49100 area, it will be a good position to add positions in the short and medium term.

10.16 Fluctuated downwards
1. BTC fluctuates downward and remains unchanged
2.ETH entered consolidation after falling below 1550
3. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached near the key support, and there is currently no sign of stabilization.

10.13 Continue to be bearish
1. Continue to be bearish on the market. BTC may rebound around 26000/25000, but all rebounds are only for a better decline.
2. ETH has taken the lead to fall below 1550. After falling below this important support, it will undergo some consolidation and repair.

10.7 Style transfer
1. After BTC’s market share has increased for a month and a half, it is expected that the blood-sucking market will end in the near future, and the counterfeit market will begin to be stronger than BTC.
2. ETH closed and engulfed the positive line after stepping back on the support, which means that the rebound of copycats will continue.
3. BTC will be volatile, and we still need to pay attention to the pressure around 28600.

10.4 Risk market collective retracement
1. Recently, US stocks/BTC have experienced a large retracement, and DXY remains strong. The bad news is that this short situation will continue. The good news is that there will be very good entry opportunities in the next few months.
2. The rise that started in January has fully overdrawn expectations for the cessation of interest rate hikes. Buying expectations and selling facts are also common operations of smart money.

9.14 Market sentiment recovers

1. As mentioned before, the market sentiment is sluggish and it is difficult to continue to decline. After the so-called bottom-out and reversal after the previous day's draw, bullish sentiment began to improve, and market activity will gradually increase.

2. The market will continue to consolidate and rebound in the 25,000-28,000 area, but the market recovery is only to better carry out the next round of decline.

9.13 Predict the logic of drawing doors

1.25300 has experienced many times without breaking, and bulls will habitually regard it as a stop-loss point for bullish calls.

2. After the big Yin line falls below 25300, the short sellers will think that the key support has fallen below the collective right and chase the shorts.

3. When your intention is too obvious and almost obvious, the main force can easily predict your behavior and use a small amount of funds to cut both long and short positions.

4. The downward trend of the market outlook has not changed, and it is only a matter of time before it falls below 24800.

9.12 Sensitive locations

1. BTC fell to the area of ​​25,000. Funds in this area are relatively sensitive. It is the position where short-term long positions stop losses and short positions on the right are chasing shorts. This position is prone to market trends and double kills of long and short positions.

2. The altcoins have been weaker than BTC in the past two days, and this situation is expected to continue for several weeks.

9.11 Consolidation will take time

1. The market sentiment has been sluggish recently and activity is very low. This situation makes it difficult to continue to decline.

2. The market will continue to repeat in the 25,000-28,000 range, and more corrections and rebounds are needed to induce a new round of decline.

https://twitter.com/leon_li2/status/1701074799714533703

9.7 Moving average short position arrangement

1. In the medium and long term, the short and long EMA moving averages of BTC have formed a short position, which means that the market has turned from long to short, and will mainly fluctuate downward in at least the next one or two months.

2. In the short term, the 25,000-28,000 range will continue to fluctuate. The market needs to recover from the sluggish mood before falling.

9.6 Market sentiment is depressed

1. Both the funding rate and contract positions in the current market are low, which is not conducive to the continued decline of the market.

2. The market will continue to consolidate around 25,000-28,000, and then continue to fall after the market vitality is restored.

3. It is good to make dual-currency investment during the consolidation market. The price remains unchanged and the profits continue to flow.

9.4 Consolidation Repair in Downtrend

1. After BTC plummeted on August 17, it was proposed that it would consolidate and recover for several weeks. The trend in the past two weeks has confirmed this view, and it is expected that the consolidation will continue for another week or two.

2. The consolidation range is around 25,000-28,000. The upper and lower rails of the range provide short-term trading opportunities.

Since 6.21, the market has roughly gone through 5 stages.

28000-31500 up

31800 peaked

After falling below 29500, it rebounded to 30200

30200 begins to plummet

Consolidation after plunge

These tweets over the past two months have almost perfectly predicted the trend at every stage. It is easy to call long or short.

It is rare to depict the details of each stage

It is rare to predict specific time, spatial extent, and key points.

What's rare is that every point of view has continuity and does not change overnight.

8.28 Consolidation rebound under the short trend

1. After the sharp decline last week, the cross star did not fall continuously and shrank, which was in line with the expectations of consolidation and repair.

2. Multiple dips and rebounds will last for nearly a month, with support below 25,000. The deeper the dip, the greater the volume, and the stronger the rebound will be.

8.23 Second exploration in progress

1. Yesterday, the market dropped again to near the previous low and then pulled up.

2. I think the second test is not strong enough. In the next one or two weeks, if it falls below the previous low or even around 24800, it will attract funds to chase shorts, and only then can an effective rebound be formed.

8.22 Second exploration and rebound

1. Second exploration and rebound are the key words of the market in the next month.

2. It is difficult for ETH to reach a new low, and BTC’s second exploration is more likely to reach a new low.

3. It is difficult to continue to fall sharply in the short term. There will be a rebound after the second test, but it is only a rebound in the downward trend.