夏木KRIS

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

30-year US Treasury yields hit 5.31%
This is a level unseen since the 2007 financial crisis.

Treasury yields have started to get hit again recently.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury surged to as high as 5.31%—the highest level since 2007. It has also moved ever closer to the 5.44% peak before the financial crisis.

What makes this situation especially tricky is that short-term interest rates have not spiked in tandem. Pressure has mainly concentrated in long-term bonds.

The US fiscal deficit, the supply of long-dated Treasuries, and on top of that AI companies borrowing furiously to build data centers are all competing with the US government for long-term funding. With oil prices recently rising again, long-term inflation expectations have also been pulled back up.

So now the market is debating future rate cuts, while the 30-year US Treasury yield is surging to a new high for 2019.

This actually shows that what the market is worried about is no longer just the Federal Reserve, but what level of interest rates will be justified for holding US long-term Treasuries over the coming decades. $NVDAB $AAPLB $GOOGL.US

Xiaomi releases its financial report today
What I’m most interested in isn’t actually phones

Xiaomi is about to release its Q2 financial report today. The market currently expects revenue of about RMB 117.85 billion. In the previous quarter, Xiaomi’s revenue was only RMB 99.1 billion, coming in below market expectations, so the pressure on this report is quite significant.

As for me, the thing I care about most is the cars.
In Q2 last year, Xiaomi’s auto deliveries were 81,302 vehicles. Losses in auto and other new businesses such as AI have already narrowed to RMB 300 million. The auto business is much larger in scale now than it was then, so what I most want to see this time is when the auto business can truly stabilize and start making real profits.

Also, on the phone side, we need to see how much profit is eaten up by storage price increases.

So for today’s Xiaomi earnings report, I’m mainly looking at three things: auto profit, phone gross margin, and the delivery guidance going forward.

$SNDK $SNDK

Gold has regained the $4,400 level, and I’m still staying bullish

Gold has pulled back again recently.

On August 17, spot gold rose by about 1% to $4,420. A few days ago it already touched a high of $4,434, and now it’s back above $4,400 again.

And honestly, the current environment is quite interesting. US Treasury yields have surged to a new 19-year high, which should put pressure on gold. But gold just won’t fall.

The reason is pretty simple: tensions in the Middle East have started heating up again. Brent crude has moved back above $90, and safe-haven capital is returning.

So I’m still the same—I’ll continue holding gold.
I started going long around the $4,000 area, and my thinking hasn’t changed since. If $4,400 can truly hold, then after we break above the previous high of $4,434, my next target is still $4,700.

$XAU $XAG $CL

I've been waiting for the position of $KAITO ; now the price has already crashed to around $0.33. Compared with the peak of $1.37 at the end of July, in less than a month the maximum drop has already exceeded 70%.

I think this is a good time to start entering the position.
Of course, there is still a risk: on August 20, KAITO will unlock 32.6 million tokens with a value of about $11.48 million, which is equivalent to 7.63% of the circulating supply. So in the short term, it’s still possible that the price could continue to be driven lower.

But because of the unlock expectations, whale selling, and the overall weak altcoin market, the price has already been pushed down a lot in advance.

So I won’t buy all at once. Around $0.33, I’ll start building my position. If, after the unlock, there are even lower prices, I’ll continue to accumulate in batches.

When something has dropped by more than 70% and the market no longer has many people looking at it, that’s when I actually start to feel more interested.

$KAITO

Harvard’s heavy stake: $SPCXB
Holdings worth $2.2 billion, becoming the #1 largest single stock position

After the latest 13F filings came out, institutional holdings for $SPCX began to be revealed. One thing that surprised me was that the Harvard University endowment fund is among them.

As of the end of June, Harvard Management Company held SpaceX shares worth approximately $2.2 billion, making it the largest single position in its publicly disclosed U.S. stock portfolio. The total U.S. stock assets disclosed in Harvard’s 13F were about $4.3 billion—meaning SpaceX alone accounted for a very large share.

And this disclosure wasn’t just about Harvard.

Alphabet held about 551.2 million shares of $SPCX ; as of late June, the value reached $94.2 billion. NVIDIA also held about 122.8 million shares, then worth roughly $21 billion.

Tiger Global’s latest 13F also included a SpaceX position for the first time, while it trimmed some of its large tech holdings.

So regarding $SPCX , I’ll continue to pay attention. After the listing, how institutions allocate their positions is only just starting to slowly unfold for the market to see. Harvard placing it as the #1 holding in its public stock portfolio is no longer a small test—it’s already a substantial position.

NVIDIA apparently holds $21 billion in SpaceX

Recently, NVIDIA disclosed a very interesting holding: as of the end of June, the company holds nearly 123 million shares of SpaceX, worth about $21 billion. This investment originally came from NVIDIA’s investment in xAI. Later, xAI was merged into SpaceX, which made NVIDIA a direct shareholder of SpaceX.

I think what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t the $21 billion itself, but the fact that the two companies are now becoming more and more tightly intertwined.

Just a few days ago, Musk said that SpaceX’s future AI infrastructure will fully adopt the NVIDIA architecture, including the next-generation Vera Rubin. SpaceX also expects to receive a substantial portion of NVIDIA’s GPU production capacity next year. SpaceX’s own goals are equally staggering: its AI computing power is set to grow from the current ~1.4GW all the way to more than 10GW by 2027.

So NVIDIA is simultaneously a shareholder in SpaceX and also the most important chip supplier for its AI expansion.

The larger SpaceX’s AI grows, the more not only NVIDIA’s stock holdings benefit, but GPU orders benefit as well. These two are increasingly starting to look like they’re tied to the same AI main line.

$NVDA $SPCX $TSLA

$SNDK Up another 14%, SanDisk is preparing to return all excess cash to shareholders

Yesterday, SanDisk at its Investor Day delivered another big piece of news.

The company directly stated that after meeting its business investment needs, it plans to return 100% of any excess cash to shareholders in the future, mainly through share repurchases. After the news was released, $SNDK surged 13.7% in a single day, and over the past four trading days it has already risen 25.8%.

What’s more, SanDisk’s current buyback authorization has reached $15.5 billion, and in the previous quarter alone it spent $4.5 billion just on repurchasing shares.

Even more importantly, management expects that revenue from fiscal years 2028 to 2030 can still maintain high-single-digit to low-double-digit growth, and its long-term gross margin target even sees levels around 80%.

So I’ve been talking about $SNDK for a while now—this move is no longer just a story about AI storage shortages.

Earnings are rising, cash flow is coming in, and the excess cash the company earns is also planning to be used directly to buy back its own stock. That’s why the market is still willing to push valuations higher.

#闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

Bitcoin may have already reached the bottom of the bear market, and the $60,000 level is getting harder and harder to break through

Lately I’ve been starting to think that around $60,000 could be the most important bottom area for this Bitcoin bear market.

Over the past few months, there have actually already been a lot of negative developments. Continuous ETF outflows, Strategy selling coins, large-scale liquidations across the market, the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance, and on top of that, the situation in the Middle East has been fluctuating. Even so, Bitcoin in June even dipped to around $59.1K at one point.

But interestingly, every time it gets killed down to around $60,000, someone quickly comes in to buy it back.

Now BTC is back around $63,000, and it has already spent about five straight weeks largely stuck in the $62,000–$66,000 range. Even with recent ETF flows weakening and geopolitical risks heating up, the price still hasn’t continued to sell off further.

These days, I’m actually paying more attention to this kind of situation: “there’s lots of bad news, but the price just won’t drop.”

A bottom usually doesn’t appear only after every piece of news turns good. If later $60,000 can keep holding, I think this area may already be one of the better places to gradually set up positions during this bear market.

$BTC $NVDAB $SNDK

KAITO fell to this level, and I think we can start buying a little bit slowly now.

Recently, I’ve started looking back at $KAITO again.

This drop has been truly brutal. On August 5, it was still around $0.93, and now it’s down to roughly $0.45. In just a little over a week, it’s basically been cut in half. In the past 24 hours, the drop even approached 30% at one point.

But I feel that now is actually when we can start to enter a phase where we slowly observe and build positions in batches.

Kaito’s products themselves haven’t stopped. On the official website, besides Mindshare, there are also Kaito Studio, Capital Launchpad, Trading Rewards, Stake KAITO, and more. The official team has also stated that Kaito Pro and Kaito Connect have become profitable.

$KAITO itself is also used for staking and governance. Long-term staking will increase voting power and grant you priority participation in the ecosystem.

Of course, the overall altcoin market is still weak, and $KAITO also has supply pressure due to unlocks, so I won’t go all in at once.

Around $0.4, I think it’s a good time to start buying a little bit slowly and keep adding in batches if it drops further. At this level, I’d rather trade time for space.

August is almost over.

I’d like to share some blessings with everyone.

Chip stocks are back on fire again
The South Korean stock market has rebounded more than 22% in 10 days

Not long ago, everyone was still worried about an AI bubble. Now, however, funds are going crazy buying back chip stocks.

From the late-July low point until now, the South Korean KOSPI has rebounded more than 22% in just about 10 trading days, officially entering a technical bull market. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have become the core of this rebound.

In particular, what SK hynix is benefiting from is the most direct AI demand. It has become a key HBM supplier for companies like NVIDIA and Google. Earlier this year, its stock price had already risen by more than 300% cumulatively.

So recently, I’m still of the same view: AI isn’t over—it’s just that capital keeps rotating to different places.

After GPUs rally, look to memory; after memory rallies, look to optical communications, power, and data centers. As long as AI capital expenditure continues to climb, it’s hard for this industry chain to fully go out.

$SKHYNIX $SKHY $SPCX
#韩国KOSPI连涨三日
#三星SK海力士领涨首尔股市

Musk said

In 5 years, 99% of SpaceX’s value may come from AI

Musk recently made an extremely bold remark at an internal SpaceX meeting: In the next five years, AI could account for 99% of SpaceX’s overall value.

And he wasn’t just talking about valuation—he also expects that as early as this September, revenue from the AI business could exceed all of SpaceX’s other businesses combined. In the long run, he even mentioned the possibility of growing AI revenue to as much as $500 billion per year.

That’s also why I think that when we look at $SPCX now, we can’t treat it as only a rocket and the Starlink company.

In its own filing, SpaceX estimates that the potential market size for AI is $26.5 trillion, far exceeding the $370 billion space business. Musk is now clearly trying to shift the valuation logic of SpaceX entirely toward AI.

Of course, the 99% figure is very aggressive. Whether it can actually be achieved will depend on real revenue. But at least Musk has laid out a very clear direction for the next five years.

$SPCXB $SNDKB #挪威主权基金披露持有SpaceX股份

CPI hasn’t sprung any surprises, and pressure for September rate hikes has eased a bit

The U.S. July CPI finally came out: year-over-year came in at 3.4%, slightly down from June’s 3.5%; month-over-month rose 0.1%, basically in line with expectations. Core CPI also fell to 2.5% year-over-year.

After the data, market expectations for another rate hike in September cooled noticeably. The big picture still leans toward keeping rates unchanged in September, but the market has still priced in about a 38% probability of a rate hike.

I think this set of data is relatively comfortable for the market. Employment has already started to cool, and inflation hasn’t reignited either. For assets like U.S. stocks and gold, at least in the short term, there’s one major source of pressure gone.

Of course, 3.4% is still far from the Fed’s 2% target, so it’s still too early to talk about rate cuts. But the necessity of another hike in September is definitely getting lower.

# Will there be another rate hike in September after the July CPI met expectations? $SNDKB $MUB $SPCXB

Gold regains the level of $4,400. I bought at $4,000 and will continue holding

Gold has come back again these days.

Spot gold has once again risen above $4,400 per ounce. Yesterday during the intraday it even hovered near $4,414, and gold futures were also around $4,430.

The position I bought around $4,000: as of now, it’s already up roughly 10%, and I still have no plans to sell.

This move is actually easy to understand. U.S. employment is cooling, CPI did not come in above expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen along with that. On top of that, geopolitical risks have been persistent, so naturally money has flowed back into gold.

Earlier, I said that in the next phase I’m looking at $4,700. That target remains unchanged. As long as the 4,300 to 4,400 area can steadily hold, I will continue holding this long position.

$XAU $XAUT $PAXG

Musk drew a bigger “pie” for $SPCX again: AI revenue could surpass the space business within next month

Recently, $SPCX has started pulling back again, and I think what Musk just said is worth paying attention to.

At an internal SpaceX meeting, he directly stated that the company’s AI business revenue could, at the earliest, exceed the entire traditional space business within next month. In other words, going forward, people may not only look at rockets and Starlink when thinking about SpaceX.

At the earnings call, Musk also mentioned that they are planning AI computing power at the GW scale. In the long run, they want to move AI data centers directly into space, using solar energy to solve the most troublesome issues of power supply and cooling for ground-based data centers.

In the previous quarter, SpaceX revenue already reached $7.8 billion, nearly doubling year over year, and Starlink itself is still growing at a rapid pace.

So when I look at $SPCXB now, the biggest upside is no longer just when Starship will succeed—it’s also that it’s gradually evolving from a space company into a three-pronged business: Starlink + rockets + AI computing power running in parallel.

That’s also why I’ve recently started paying renewed attention to $SPCX .

Bought gold with $4000, and I’ve already made a 10% profit now

Not long ago, when gold dropped to around $4000, I chose to enter directly. At the time, the market was still pretty bearish—many people felt this gold rally was already over.

Now gold is trading around $4400, and this position is roughly up 10%.

My thoughts haven’t changed for now. I won’t rush to sell just because I’ve gained 10%. As long as gold continues to hold the current trend, I’ll keep holding.

$4000 is my entry level, and for the next stage I’ll first be looking at $4700.

$XAU $XAUT $PAXG

Oil prices have fallen to around $74, but the matter of the Strait of Hormuz is not truly over yet.

Recently, oil prices have clearly cooled down, with WTI back around $74. One important reason is that there has been progress in the temporary navigation arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.

But I don’t think it’s too early to say the crisis is over.

What’s being discussed at the moment is temporary routes and navigation arrangements, which doesn’t mean the Strait of Hormuz has fully returned to normal. It also doesn’t mean that the issues between Iran and the United States have been resolved.

That’s why oil is prone to this kind of movement right now: it falls when negotiations make progress, then rises quickly when a new conflict suddenly emerges.

At around $74, oil prices have already priced in many optimistic expectations. Going forward, as long as the agreement doesn’t end up being implemented for a long time, the geopolitical risk premium could return at any time.

$CL $NVDAB $AAPL.US

$SNDK 月13日还有一场大的，财报之后真正的重点来了

Recently, people have been asking me about $SNDK , and I think it’s worth noting that the timeline of August 13.

SanDisk has confirmed that on that day, the 2026 Investor Day will be held, and the CEO, CFO, and other members of management will all be there. The focus will be on the company’s current business situation and the direction it will take going forward.

Why do I think this event is more important than a typical one?
Because the earnings report figures have already been analyzed. What everyone really wants to know now is: how long can the NAND and enterprise storage demand driven by AI last? Can the future profit margins be maintained? And how will the company position itself to capture the upside from the AI data center expansion?

$SNDK has already risen a lot earlier, so the market now wants more than just “strong performance.” It wants to know whether the company can deliver a bigger long-term story.
#
How management talks on August 13 will, I believe, directly affect how the market values $SNDK in the next phase.