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The only one still persistently buying $BTC in the sluggish market is @saylor big brother,
Strategy increased its holdings by 3,015 $BTC last week.
Currently, MicroStrategy holds a total of 720,737 bitcoins, with a total cost of approximately $54.77 billion, and an average cost per coin of about $75,985.
Currently, it is facing an unrealized loss of about $6 billion.
Strategy increased its holdings by 3,015 $BTC last week.
Currently, MicroStrategy holds a total of 720,737 bitcoins, with a total cost of approximately $54.77 billion, and an average cost per coin of about $75,985.
Currently, it is facing an unrealized loss of about $6 billion.
Currently, $BTC is undervalued against gold by 24%–66%
Historically, every time the Z-score of BTC/Gold falls to extreme negative values, it often corresponds to the starting point of a major market movement.
For example, similar structures appeared during the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 FTX.
Historically, every time the Z-score of BTC/Gold falls to extreme negative values, it often corresponds to the starting point of a major market movement.
For example, similar structures appeared during the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 FTX.
At the previous Hong Kong conference, everyone was saying Crypto will die, but I didn't feel it yet;
Until just now, I was chatting with a friend in the industry——
He used to look down on those within the system, scolding those with fixed salaries for having no dreams, saying they couldn't even compete with an advertisement in the crypto circle.
Then he signed up to take the civil service exam next month. This is too real! 😂
Until just now, I was chatting with a friend in the industry——
He used to look down on those within the system, scolding those with fixed salaries for having no dreams, saying they couldn't even compete with an advertisement in the crypto circle.
Then he signed up to take the civil service exam next month. This is too real! 😂
🚨This is indeed a case worth being cautious about in the prediction market, I understand it now——
Polymarket's hybrid architecture has a natural BUG: the off-chain state and on-chain state can never be completely synchronized.
The attacker only used a set of automated scripts, with less than $0.1 of Gas, about 50 seconds per cycle, the attack method——
1⃣ First use the API to place an order normally, allowing the off-chain system to confirm that the match is established;
2⃣ Almost simultaneously, use higher Gas to drain the wallet funds on-chain, resulting in a settlement failure;
3⃣ The system will forcibly remove all market maker orders participating in this match from the order book, artificially creating a vacuum in the market.
This way, the attacker can earn money in two ways:
1⃣ After repeatedly clearing the field, they can place extremely wide price spreads in the artificially created market vacuum, and if other users are eager to trade, they can only be forced to accept this price.
2⃣ Deceive market-making bots into misjudging transactions and automatically hedging, then use a rollback to instantly expose the opponent's unidirectional position, allowing the attacker to drive the price or trade in reverse, thus stabilizing the harvest.
There have not yet been large-scale attacks; if they occur on a large scale, the depth of the order book will systematically shrink, ultimately harming the platform's moat.
Polymarket's hybrid architecture has a natural BUG: the off-chain state and on-chain state can never be completely synchronized.
The attacker only used a set of automated scripts, with less than $0.1 of Gas, about 50 seconds per cycle, the attack method——
1⃣ First use the API to place an order normally, allowing the off-chain system to confirm that the match is established;
2⃣ Almost simultaneously, use higher Gas to drain the wallet funds on-chain, resulting in a settlement failure;
3⃣ The system will forcibly remove all market maker orders participating in this match from the order book, artificially creating a vacuum in the market.
This way, the attacker can earn money in two ways:
1⃣ After repeatedly clearing the field, they can place extremely wide price spreads in the artificially created market vacuum, and if other users are eager to trade, they can only be forced to accept this price.
2⃣ Deceive market-making bots into misjudging transactions and automatically hedging, then use a rollback to instantly expose the opponent's unidirectional position, allowing the attacker to drive the price or trade in reverse, thus stabilizing the harvest.
There have not yet been large-scale attacks; if they occur on a large scale, the depth of the order book will systematically shrink, ultimately harming the platform's moat.
⚡️Overview of Major Events in the Crypto Market to Watch in March——
It seems to be a month of macro tuning + internal supply rebalancing in Crypto, which is a key observation period that will determine the trading tone for Q2!
1⃣ March 6 Non-Farm Payrolls + March 11 CPI (the most core data indicators)
The market still holds expectations for easing this year, but the issue is that the Federal Reserve has clearly entered a slower and more cautious phase.
If Non-Farm Payrolls weaken marginally + CPI retreats moderately, that would be the most comfortable macro combination, and risk assets will directly pre-position for trading, improving liquidity.
If Non-Farm Payrolls are strong + CPI does not come down, that would be the most comfortable for the Federal Reserve, but the hardest combination for risk assets, and BTC could easily enter a phase of high volatility and sideways movement.
If Non-Farm Payrolls collapse sharply + CPI remains high, then March will continue to be a flat and lifeless rhythm!
2⃣ March 19: FOMC Interest Rate Decision + Economic Forecast Summary
If the dot plot remains unchanged but the wording turns dovish, then the market will likely start to anticipate easing on its own;
If it only maintains a narrative of being higher for longer, then significant volatility may still exist.
3⃣ This month will see intensive unlocks, bringing a new round of liquidity pressure tests.
Data shows that the total amount of tokens to be unlocked in March is expected to reach approximately $6.03 billion, compared to only about $2 billion in February.
Among them, WhiteBIT will unlock approximately $4.18 billion of WBT, which occupies a large portion of the total circulating tokens in March.
Currently, altcoins have entered a very torturous range of oscillation + decline; the most common mistake during this phase is misjudging structural selling as market manipulation.
From trading experience, in an environment lacking certainty, position management itself is part of the return; do not cling too much to battles, and when facing a rebound, it is appropriate to realize profits.
4⃣ edgeX is expected to conduct TGE.
This is one of the few variables in March that may bring a short-term recovery in risk appetite. The project has received investment from Circle, so flipping it back should not be a problem of making more or less profit.
However, the current awkward transitional period has some challenges:
- Established projects are continuously releasing tokens
- New projects are competing for limited attention
- Macro liquidity is still on the way
In such market conditions, one should not have too high expectations; lowering expectations may unexpectedly lead to pleasant surprises.
It seems to be a month of macro tuning + internal supply rebalancing in Crypto, which is a key observation period that will determine the trading tone for Q2!
1⃣ March 6 Non-Farm Payrolls + March 11 CPI (the most core data indicators)
The market still holds expectations for easing this year, but the issue is that the Federal Reserve has clearly entered a slower and more cautious phase.
If Non-Farm Payrolls weaken marginally + CPI retreats moderately, that would be the most comfortable macro combination, and risk assets will directly pre-position for trading, improving liquidity.
If Non-Farm Payrolls are strong + CPI does not come down, that would be the most comfortable for the Federal Reserve, but the hardest combination for risk assets, and BTC could easily enter a phase of high volatility and sideways movement.
If Non-Farm Payrolls collapse sharply + CPI remains high, then March will continue to be a flat and lifeless rhythm!
2⃣ March 19: FOMC Interest Rate Decision + Economic Forecast Summary
If the dot plot remains unchanged but the wording turns dovish, then the market will likely start to anticipate easing on its own;
If it only maintains a narrative of being higher for longer, then significant volatility may still exist.
3⃣ This month will see intensive unlocks, bringing a new round of liquidity pressure tests.
Data shows that the total amount of tokens to be unlocked in March is expected to reach approximately $6.03 billion, compared to only about $2 billion in February.
Among them, WhiteBIT will unlock approximately $4.18 billion of WBT, which occupies a large portion of the total circulating tokens in March.
Currently, altcoins have entered a very torturous range of oscillation + decline; the most common mistake during this phase is misjudging structural selling as market manipulation.
From trading experience, in an environment lacking certainty, position management itself is part of the return; do not cling too much to battles, and when facing a rebound, it is appropriate to realize profits.
4⃣ edgeX is expected to conduct TGE.
This is one of the few variables in March that may bring a short-term recovery in risk appetite. The project has received investment from Circle, so flipping it back should not be a problem of making more or less profit.
However, the current awkward transitional period has some challenges:
- Established projects are continuously releasing tokens
- New projects are competing for limited attention
- Macro liquidity is still on the way
In such market conditions, one should not have too high expectations; lowering expectations may unexpectedly lead to pleasant surprises.
Regarding Usd1脱矛, I just reviewed the information related to USD1, and I would like to add some points regarding the above issues:
1️⃣ @EricTrump only deleted a related tweet, and I don't know why it became rumored that he deleted everything.
2️⃣ A big player has placed a large order that triggered a reaction.
3️⃣ Currently, there is no issue found with WLFI.
4️⃣ Currently, there's no information found about the Trump family making a statement or cutting ties.
4️⃣ The founder of the Equation News shared his bottom-fishing screenshot.
1️⃣ @EricTrump only deleted a related tweet, and I don't know why it became rumored that he deleted everything.
2️⃣ A big player has placed a large order that triggered a reaction.
3️⃣ Currently, there is no issue found with WLFI.
4️⃣ Currently, there's no information found about the Trump family making a statement or cutting ties.
4️⃣ The founder of the Equation News shared his bottom-fishing screenshot.
Overview of historical Bitcoin New Year market trends, average increase +10%!——
This year's $BTC performance:
February 17 (New Year's Eve): 68000
February 22 (Day Six): 68000
Price change: 0%
It has also passed the Spring Festival relatively smoothly, feeling that after such a long period of stagnation, a direction will soon emerge.
Yesterday we welcomed the God of Wealth, today we send off the God of Poverty. Remember to clean to sweep away bad luck and welcome the good fortune and wealth of the new year!
This year's $BTC performance:
February 17 (New Year's Eve): 68000
February 22 (Day Six): 68000
Price change: 0%
It has also passed the Spring Festival relatively smoothly, feeling that after such a long period of stagnation, a direction will soon emerge.
Yesterday we welcomed the God of Wealth, today we send off the God of Poverty. Remember to clean to sweep away bad luck and welcome the good fortune and wealth of the new year!
🚨The Supreme Court has overturned the equal tariffs, and we are now back in an extremely uncertain environment——
The Supreme Court of the United States ruled 6:3 that the Trump administration's massive tariff increases citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were "illegal."
You have to say Trump is quite a character!
Because he almost didn't think about it and changed the legal provision that day, introducing a 10% global tariff (150-day version), while initiating multiple so-called 301 investigations to pave the way for subsequent formal tariffs.
HSBC estimates that, according to the ruling, the U.S. may need to refund the IEEPA tariffs already collected:
The potential refund amount is $175 billion, which is definitely a short-term fiscal stimulus for the U.S. stock market.
However, Trump stated that the ruling did not discuss the refund issue, and the government does not have an immediate large-scale refund plan in the short term; to get a refund, it would take more than two years of litigation.
This is ridiculous; they have turned tariffs into a layered cake!😂
The Supreme Court of the United States ruled 6:3 that the Trump administration's massive tariff increases citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were "illegal."
You have to say Trump is quite a character!
Because he almost didn't think about it and changed the legal provision that day, introducing a 10% global tariff (150-day version), while initiating multiple so-called 301 investigations to pave the way for subsequent formal tariffs.
HSBC estimates that, according to the ruling, the U.S. may need to refund the IEEPA tariffs already collected:
The potential refund amount is $175 billion, which is definitely a short-term fiscal stimulus for the U.S. stock market.
However, Trump stated that the ruling did not discuss the refund issue, and the government does not have an immediate large-scale refund plan in the short term; to get a refund, it would take more than two years of litigation.
This is ridiculous; they have turned tariffs into a layered cake!😂
The competition of stablecoins has never been about who is more stable, but who can control 'where the money comes from and where it goes.'
The path of WLFI is actually becoming clearer: it is essentially not about creating stablecoins, but about competing for the 'distribution rights of USD liquidity.'
In the race of stablecoins, competitors are vying, and technology is no longer a threshold; the real barriers are only three things:
1️⃣ Entry points (exchanges / channels)
2️⃣ Habits (why users choose you over USDT / USDC)
3️⃣ Yield structure (can you offer more attractive capital efficiency)
WLFI has recently been continuously renewing its financial products on Binance, and the intention is clear. From this perspective, WLFI's path is indeed very clear:
Use USD1 as an entry point for liquidity, cultivate usage habits with yields and channels, and finally, bring out WLFI as the 'equity layer.'
Therefore, the valuation of WLFI is essentially not about looking at technology or narrative, but about a very realistic issue: whether USD1 can form real scale and accumulation in several key channels.
If it can, then it will naturally transform into a 'dividend certificate' tied to stablecoin cash flow.
This is also why Binance's financial product for USD1 is so crucial:
It's not a benefit; it's creating a usage path.
In summary, the final statement of this logic is:
The endgame of stablecoins is not about who is more stable, but who can control 'where the money comes from and where it goes.'
The path of WLFI is actually becoming clearer: it is essentially not about creating stablecoins, but about competing for the 'distribution rights of USD liquidity.'
In the race of stablecoins, competitors are vying, and technology is no longer a threshold; the real barriers are only three things:
1️⃣ Entry points (exchanges / channels)
2️⃣ Habits (why users choose you over USDT / USDC)
3️⃣ Yield structure (can you offer more attractive capital efficiency)
WLFI has recently been continuously renewing its financial products on Binance, and the intention is clear. From this perspective, WLFI's path is indeed very clear:
Use USD1 as an entry point for liquidity, cultivate usage habits with yields and channels, and finally, bring out WLFI as the 'equity layer.'
Therefore, the valuation of WLFI is essentially not about looking at technology or narrative, but about a very realistic issue: whether USD1 can form real scale and accumulation in several key channels.
If it can, then it will naturally transform into a 'dividend certificate' tied to stablecoin cash flow.
This is also why Binance's financial product for USD1 is so crucial:
It's not a benefit; it's creating a usage path.
In summary, the final statement of this logic is:
The endgame of stablecoins is not about who is more stable, but who can control 'where the money comes from and where it goes.'
In this circle, judgment is worth more than opportunity.
the matter of the fried chicken little brother,
it has been buzzing in the past few days,
I don't know him,
but many friends I know have fallen for it,
Still, let me say a few more words,
remind everyone to finish watching,
how to avoid pitfalls and how to prevent being scammed!
many people have heard the complete story,
I won't elaborate here,
the story is not new to me at all,
basically, this post-00s claims to have made over a billion,
to help with grooming and to help with trading for annual returns,
many people invested in him,
the amount of money scammed should be around tens of millions of dollars.
but if you stay in this circle long enough,
you will find:
it has been buzzing in the past few days,
I don't know him,
but many friends I know have fallen for it,
Still, let me say a few more words,
remind everyone to finish watching,
how to avoid pitfalls and how to prevent being scammed!
many people have heard the complete story,
I won't elaborate here,
the story is not new to me at all,
basically, this post-00s claims to have made over a billion,
to help with grooming and to help with trading for annual returns,
many people invested in him,
the amount of money scammed should be around tens of millions of dollars.
but if you stay in this circle long enough,
you will find:
He once owned 370 BTC but ultimately died from 'at most 3x leverage' | Many people have not psychologically prepared for 'losing this money'!
This afternoon, I finished reading Mandy's article (there's actually no difference between 2x leverage and 100x leverage) (the original text can be searched on X homepage by yourself)
The article gets straight to the point, and I hope everyone can take a look and compare it with their own actions and mindset in real trading scenarios to see if it reflects your situation; if so, that's very dangerous.
I think most people may have been in the industry for many years, engaging in contract leverage every day, but in fact, they have never truly understood what leverage is, and that is the most dangerous part.
Let me also share a story from my personal experience:
The article gets straight to the point, and I hope everyone can take a look and compare it with their own actions and mindset in real trading scenarios to see if it reflects your situation; if so, that's very dangerous.
I think most people may have been in the industry for many years, engaging in contract leverage every day, but in fact, they have never truly understood what leverage is, and that is the most dangerous part.
Let me also share a story from my personal experience:
I read Vitalik @VitalikButerin's newly published article on Ethereum × AI, and to be honest, it was very impactful!
Different from that article in 2024, he finally pulled $ETH out of the predicament of insufficient application imagination and found a new long-term viable narrative!
He proposed a 2×2 construction space, clarifying four cross-directional paths that Ethereum is truly suitable for and worth pursuing in the AI era:
1⃣ Enable more trust-minimized and simultaneously more private AI interactions
V emphasizes local models, ZK payments, privacy calls, client verification, and TEE proof, all addressing one problem: AI is very strong → How can AI be used without being controlled?
He proposed a 2×2 construction space, clarifying four cross-directional paths that Ethereum is truly suitable for and worth pursuing in the AI era:
1⃣ Enable more trust-minimized and simultaneously more private AI interactions
V emphasizes local models, ZK payments, privacy calls, client verification, and TEE proof, all addressing one problem: AI is very strong → How can AI be used without being controlled?
Winter has come, and many people have privately messaged saying that they had reached A7,8 in assets during the bull market, but due to greed didn't sell and saw their investments halve; there are too many stories like this recently.
I checked the DBTI trading personality for you at x.com/CalculusFinance, and this situation is the most typical DANV (high volatility aggressive type).
The core issue with this personality type is not their judgment ability, but that they can make profits but won't take them. They often enter the market earlier than others, understand trends, but take 'the bull market continues' as the default premise and see pullbacks as normal fluctuations until it's too late.
I also did a test for myself, and the result was: DBTV.
After testing myself, my brain automatically started the 'matching mode'. So if I guess the DBTI of people in the circle——
@CZ
It feels to me like:
Not swayed by emotions
Always standing on the side of the longer cycle
(DBTS / CBTS vibes)
@Yi He
More like:
Can understand the story
Also dare to make decisions at critical moments
(DBTV / DBNV vibes)
I might be completely wrong,
But the greatest fun of this thing is:
Guessing people is more fun than guessing the market trends.
What type do you think they would be?
👉 Test market-making personality entry: https://calculus.finance
Invitation code: GZTr
I checked the DBTI trading personality for you at x.com/CalculusFinance, and this situation is the most typical DANV (high volatility aggressive type).
The core issue with this personality type is not their judgment ability, but that they can make profits but won't take them. They often enter the market earlier than others, understand trends, but take 'the bull market continues' as the default premise and see pullbacks as normal fluctuations until it's too late.
I also did a test for myself, and the result was: DBTV.
After testing myself, my brain automatically started the 'matching mode'. So if I guess the DBTI of people in the circle——
@CZ
It feels to me like:
Not swayed by emotions
Always standing on the side of the longer cycle
(DBTS / CBTS vibes)
@Yi He
More like:
Can understand the story
Also dare to make decisions at critical moments
(DBTV / DBNV vibes)
I might be completely wrong,
But the greatest fun of this thing is:
Guessing people is more fun than guessing the market trends.
What type do you think they would be?
👉 Test market-making personality entry: https://calculus.finance
Invitation code: GZTr
⚡️With deep integration at Binance, $USD1 has grown by 55% in a month, and its current market value has surpassed 5 billion USD, steadily entering the top tier of stablecoins!
We have now entered a period of ease; apart from dual-currency winning, it's basically just lying back and enjoying the returns from USD1.
There are two investment methods——
1. Main channel: Binance platform + WLFI subsidy.
1) Placing it in a contract/leverage account, actual holdings of 5w USD1 can earn nearly 1500 $WLFI, worth 150u, with an annualized return rate of about 16%.
This mainly relies on WLFI subsidies and can still earn for over a week.
After the subsidy ends on February 20, the protocol's internal earnings (lending interest + fee sharing) can roughly support an annualized return of 2-3%.
2) Placing it in wealth management, with a 4.2% liquid return.
2. On-chain protocol earnings (World Liberty Markets)
Based on the Dolomite protocol's earnings structure, combined with WLFI subsidies, the comprehensive APY can reach 9.6%.
Family members, is it possible that we can expect another round of USD1 investment activities?👀
We have now entered a period of ease; apart from dual-currency winning, it's basically just lying back and enjoying the returns from USD1.
There are two investment methods——
1. Main channel: Binance platform + WLFI subsidy.
1) Placing it in a contract/leverage account, actual holdings of 5w USD1 can earn nearly 1500 $WLFI, worth 150u, with an annualized return rate of about 16%.
This mainly relies on WLFI subsidies and can still earn for over a week.
After the subsidy ends on February 20, the protocol's internal earnings (lending interest + fee sharing) can roughly support an annualized return of 2-3%.
2) Placing it in wealth management, with a 4.2% liquid return.
2. On-chain protocol earnings (World Liberty Markets)
Based on the Dolomite protocol's earnings structure, combined with WLFI subsidies, the comprehensive APY can reach 9.6%.
Family members, is it possible that we can expect another round of USD1 investment activities?👀
The production relationship is changing: one-person companies are becoming the biggest structural opportunity for ordinary people.
Last night, the X blogger may.crypto used Clawbot to trade on Polymarket, setting up a simple strategy that allowed AI to help him earn $347 from $100 overnight;
This is a small attempt, but it is a reflection of a large trend:
https://x.com/Bitwux/status/2016341735782416552
The next step for the AI contractor is the one-person company.
The future is a high explosion period for one-person companies, and it is the biggest opportunity for all ordinary people.
From Dan Koe's (How I'd build a one-person business):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyR8nqD3sQ8
This is a small attempt, but it is a reflection of a large trend:
https://x.com/Bitwux/status/2016341735782416552
The next step for the AI contractor is the one-person company.
The future is a high explosion period for one-person companies, and it is the biggest opportunity for all ordinary people.
From Dan Koe's (How I'd build a one-person business):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyR8nqD3sQ8
⚠️ It's not just gold and silver; US software stocks have also crashed, facing the worst annual start in years!
As the Nasdaq approaches historical highs, several traditional SaaS companies' stocks have recorded the largest weekly declines;
One could say that the release of Claude Cowork AI demonstrates capabilities and speed of change unprecedented, completely accelerating the performance divergence of software stocks and other areas of the tech sector!
Over the past decade, the US software sector has enjoyed a triple bonus:
1) Low interest rates → Extremely low discount rates → Maximization of forward cash flows
2) SaaS model → High gross margins + High renewal rates → Able to tell the lifetime value story
3) Cloud transformation → The market is willing to give a premium for predictable growth
The result is a typical phenomenon:
As long as you are SaaS + high growth + attractive ARR — even if you are not profitable, you can expect 15–30 times your valuation.
However, with the emergence of AI, the marginal cost of some software functions has approached 0, leading to a significant migration of funds —
Application layer SaaS → Flowing into AI infrastructure + computing power + chips + platform-level models
Following this trend, regardless of how cheap the stock price is or how large the decline is, it seems that there are currently no reasons left to hold software stocks!
As the Nasdaq approaches historical highs, several traditional SaaS companies' stocks have recorded the largest weekly declines;
One could say that the release of Claude Cowork AI demonstrates capabilities and speed of change unprecedented, completely accelerating the performance divergence of software stocks and other areas of the tech sector!
Over the past decade, the US software sector has enjoyed a triple bonus:
1) Low interest rates → Extremely low discount rates → Maximization of forward cash flows
2) SaaS model → High gross margins + High renewal rates → Able to tell the lifetime value story
3) Cloud transformation → The market is willing to give a premium for predictable growth
The result is a typical phenomenon:
As long as you are SaaS + high growth + attractive ARR — even if you are not profitable, you can expect 15–30 times your valuation.
However, with the emergence of AI, the marginal cost of some software functions has approached 0, leading to a significant migration of funds —
Application layer SaaS → Flowing into AI infrastructure + computing power + chips + platform-level models
Following this trend, regardless of how cheap the stock price is or how large the decline is, it seems that there are currently no reasons left to hold software stocks!
🧐Don't try to catch the bottom, stop self-destructing, and enjoy the New Year
Historical major corrections after significant surges in gold and silver:
Gold: 3–6 months:
Peak in August 2020: ≈ 2075 USD, returned to above 2000+: March 2022, from the peak: about 19 months, is considered "back to normal".
Silver: 6–12 months:
Peak in August 2020: ≈ 29.8 USD, truly returning and stabilizing above 30: 2024, from the peak: nearly 3.5–4 years, before it fully returns to normal. Trapped everyone for three to four years.
Emotional short squeeze market, the time correction must be greater than the price correction, so I agree with Banana Brother's statement:
Don't try to catch the bottom!
Historical major corrections after significant surges in gold and silver:
Gold: 3–6 months:
Peak in August 2020: ≈ 2075 USD, returned to above 2000+: March 2022, from the peak: about 19 months, is considered "back to normal".
Silver: 6–12 months:
Peak in August 2020: ≈ 29.8 USD, truly returning and stabilizing above 30: 2024, from the peak: nearly 3.5–4 years, before it fully returns to normal. Trapped everyone for three to four years.
Emotional short squeeze market, the time correction must be greater than the price correction, so I agree with Banana Brother's statement:
Don't try to catch the bottom!
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