The current market is like a whale hibernating in the summer. The small shrimps are fighting each other, which can't make any big waves, nor can it change the existing market structure. We should continue to wait and see. After many years in the speculative market, sometimes we have to trust investment fortune. Most of the summer time, people's hearts are agitated with the weather, and the whole market is often in a downturn. After the beginning of autumn, the weather gradually turns cooler, and the speculative atmosphere in the market will slowly rise. This is also the case throughout the history of the market.

From August to October 2011, the coin CRV had 9 false breakthroughs. One of them was an increase, but it fell back after a few days. This kind of currency itself does not have much strength and its character is not upright. There is no need to stay on it for more. You are concerned about its few points, but it is concerned about your principal.

As for the possibility of repeating Luna's 99% decline, that is basically negligible. First of all, there may not be anyone to take over this decline, and it is not even enough to cover the listing fee. But in any case, just don't touch it. If you don't pay attention to it, its rise and fall has nothing to do with you.

When the currency price enters a tug-of-war state, some large institutions want to take profits, and some institutions just want to enter the market. As for retail investors, they are always in the market. When the market price is at a low fundamental position, it reaches an extreme point where those who enter the market and take profits from the breakthrough can usher in a new market situation.

This week (expected to be on August 3), Litecoin will have its third halving in history (Bitcoin is scheduled to have its fourth halving at the end of April next year). Although Litecoin’s price cycle is very different from Bitcoin’s, we want to look at Litecoin’s cyclical performance and how it changes, which may be instructive for how Bitcoin’s cycle will change in the future.

Litecoin halving cycles are characterized by a price bottom 7-8 months before the halving (around the trough of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle), followed by a sharp rebound, usually outperforming Bitcoin, until a price peak 1-1.5 months before the actual halving. Litecoin then falls into a new cycle and finds a new bottom sometime after the halving.

Therefore, Litecoin’s halving cycle is an expected cycle, with LTC prices experiencing troughs and peaks before the halving event. This is in contrast to Bitcoin, which will reach its price peak only after the halving occurs.

Keep a low profile in August

One of the triggers in August is that the SEC may reject BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF application. The first response cycle of the review is this month, and it is the first time. This application will not be so smooth, so it is likely to be rejected. The rebound at the end of June was affected by this favorable sentiment. Once rejected, it will have a greater impact on the short term. Although we all know that this application will eventually be approved, it is a long road.

The second trigger: The blood-sucking effect of new debt issuance reached its peak in August. In June, the U.S. fiscal balance increased by more than 400 billion U.S. dollars. The blood-sucking effect of U.S. debt has just begun, and there will be new debt issuance in the future, which will probably reach its peak in August. The key is that this process is also accompanied by the Fed's balance sheet reduction. Since the Fed's emergency rescue of Silicon Valley Bank, the scale of the Fed's balance sheet reduction has exceeded the scale of the rescue. These actions will lead to a continued tightening of market liquidity.

Monthly chart:

The first pressure of the monthly line of Bitcoin is around 31000;

The first monthly pressure of ether is in the range of 1970~1980

The first pressure of the monthly line of Latiao is around 110

The first pressure of Bitcoin Cash monthly line is around 290

The above is a reference for pressure levels, not the target position for bulls. You must be clear about this logic.

Trading is not as complicated as you might think. On the contrary, the simpler the better. The simpler the trading rules, the easier it is to see the market, and the simpler the trading system, the easier it is to execute.

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.