There have been so many major events happening in the past two days that it feels like any one of them is an earthquake-level event. Mulan will just briefly review them with you all now.
First and foremost, the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC
The judge ruled that XRP itself is not a security, and Ripple's public offering in the primary market was legal, but private financing violated securities laws because the assets sold in this process are usually considered securities, and such securities sales need to be registered with the SEC. So although XRP has won the non-security status, Ripple still violated the law.
A friend of mine who is a lawyer abroad told me that the SEC did not completely lose because the case was not dismissed by the court, and the SEC had the right to immediately appeal to the Second Circuit Court, but the SEC did not do so. From the SEC's reply letter that was exposed later, we can see that the SEC was satisfied with the verdict. The reason why it did not continue to appeal may be that it was determined that it could not win the case on XRP as a security, and the judge admitted that XRP violated the securities law when it was privately funded, so the subsequent discussion only required fines.
Then let's talk about the impact of Ripple's victory in this lawsuit. First of all, the most direct impact is that the more than 20 tokens that were previously defined as securities by the SEC are safe, including ETH, because XRP is the first to be targeted by the SEC, which means that it is the most like a security among many crypto assets, and there is a clear entity company behind it. The result now is that even XRP is not a security, so other crypto projects are even more difficult to be defined as securities. So the XRP lawsuit is actually for the entire currency circle. Although the lawyers' fees alone cost $200 million, I think it is worth it. Then after the news of XRP's victory came out, mainstream US exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Crypto.com immediately announced the listing of XRP. It can be seen that when facing foreign enemies, all institutions in the currency circle stand together. This lawsuit has shown unprecedented unity in the currency circle.
After this lawsuit, the SEC's lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance, and Gemini are no longer valid, because since none of them are securities, the SEC has no control over them. CB is the safest among them, as can be seen from the attitude of CB's legal team and Cathie Wood's continuous buying, and all Bitcoin spot ETFs are cooperating with Coinbase. Binance should have other troubles in the future, as I have said before.
Finally, the authority of the SEC was completely shattered by Ripple. This should be the first time that the crypto industry has won against a government agency, and it is rare in the United States. This victory has completely defeated the "pseudo-laws" made by the SEC using its power, and the credibility of the SEC chairman in the government and Capitol Hill has dropped to a historic low. The most important thing is that the crypto industry will no longer be afraid of the SEC in the future.
Another thing is the news from the Wall Street Journal in the early morning
As soon as the news came out, all employees withdrew their long positions for emergency risk avoidance. I think this incident is more of a malicious attack from the capital side. The news you see is what others want you to see. It is a means to achieve certain goals. I have to say that the impact of this wave is relatively large. BTC fell from 31,250 at 12:30 to 29,800 at 3 am. The market is always changing rapidly, especially such sudden news without any signs. If you don’t have a keen sense of smell, it is easy to be trapped.
At present, the market will fluctuate in a range. The intraday low of 29800 is regarded as the key support, and the upper pressure of the middle track 30600 is 31600! It is prudent not to enter the market in the short term, and wait for the market to stabilize and then read my post update.