On June 20, traditional investment institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and WisdomTree applied for BTC spot ETFs respectively, making the expectation that the US SEC regulatory authorities will approve BTC spot ETFs increasingly strong.
On June 21, the compliant exchange EDX provided trading services for four currencies: BTC, ETHicon, LTCicon, and BCH. This exchange does not hold user funds in custody, but instead entrusts them to a third party for management.
Influenced by the two good news, BCH led the rise (doubling in just 10 days), driving the sentiment of the currency market to stop falling and rebound. BTC hit a new high of more than $31,000.
Apart from ETH, other currencies that have surged are basically POW-based currencies (including ETC). The logic behind this is “compliance”, and none of them will be defined as “securities” by the US SEC regulatory authorities.
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On June 27, the news of FTX's restart became increasingly clear, and companies such as Sequoia Capital icon, Nasdaq icon, rippleicon, and BlackRock expressed their intention to restart FTX.
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In the second half of the year, expectations of interest rate hikes in the United States to curb inflation increased, and the impact of market uncertainties increased.
Closely follow the major market fluctuations caused by “news influence”.
Focus on the US CPI and non-farm payrolls data in July, which will affect whether the US will raise interest rates in July. At present, the market expects a "25 basis point rate hike". If it turns to "no rate hike" later, the US stock market and BTC market will continue to fluctuate upward (rise), otherwise, they will fall.
In addition, we should also pay attention to the changes in interest rate policies in September, October and December.
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If the United States wants to control the global financial capital market through BTC, it must introduce a "compliance" policy. This is also the foundation for the next bull market (traditional financial institutions and investment institutions entering the market).
In addition, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will also have a certain market impact on AI and the BTC market (the BTC market saw a big rise in the second half of 2020 when the U.S. presidential election took place).
Whether the BTC market can start a bull market from 2024 to 2025 is determined by four major factors:
1. BTC halving
2. US interest rate cuts
3. BTC spot ETF approved
4. New technology-driven
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