$BTC 11.11 Outlook｜Will BTC Be Discounted?
MicroStrategy’s removal is imminent. Bulls should protect their positions. Regardless of the outcome, the market is likely to see major volatility. My personal bearish view remains unchanged.

Many people seem to have a superstition about the market pricing things in ahead of time: they think that once something has been priced in, there won’t be much volatility. That’s not necessarily true. On August 5, 2024, after Japan raised interest rates, Japanese stocks plunged and BTC crashed below 50K. People thought it had already been priced in then, too. Whether MicroStrategy’s removal will drag BTC down is still an unconfirmed major bearish catalyst, so those going long should manage their position sizes carefully.

On the daily chart, after the two consecutive hammer candles mentioned previously, yesterday’s candle broke below the bodies of those hammers. The daily trend remains bearish. However, note that the decline has not been particularly smooth, and short liquidity around 77,000 is growing thicker. So there’s a chance of a rebound here to liquidate that liquidity before the price falls again.

Looking at the overall daily structure, the parabolic decline shows no signs of bottoming, and there has been no panic selling. Meanwhile, a large amount of long-position liquidity at 63,000 is attracting the price.

In my system, I would under no circumstances take profit on my short positions or open any long positions in this kind of price action. So I’ll still leave my take-profit order at 63,000. For options, I’ll watch the funding rate and market structure for confirmation before considering taking profit.

Looking at the data,

The dip-buying crowd still hasn’t given up on BTC, and funding rates remain high, which is also consistent with the characteristics of a ranging market.

Why do I say this is characteristic of a ranging market?
Because many people lose their capital in a range: they short at 60,000 and BTC surges; they go long at 80,000 and BTC plunges. This can wipe many people out, but that’s trading.

If I weren’t already holding a position, I wouldn’t trade near the current price. I’d watch for resistance around 77,000 and look for a short entry.
The chart below marks two possible paths for BTC.

This is a forecast for studying price action, not a definitive prediction of market behavior. Leave your questions about the market in the comments.