There are two opposing forces of money at work on the chart. Last week, U.S. $BTC spot ETF net outflows were about $1.28 billion, the highest weekly level since June, with IBIT alone accounting for $1.21 billion. ETH ETFs saw their sixth straight week of outflows, with about $365 million for the week. On the other side, a whale borrowed 22 million USDT to buy 10,000 $ETH at an average price of about $2,155. Another address that had been dormant for more than two years withdrew over 34,000 ETH from an exchange in one go.
From a liquidity perspective, these two things change two different kinds of supply. ETF redemptions are large-scale passive selling pressure, which is transmitted through market makers to the spot order book. Whale withdrawals reduce the chips that can be sold at any moment on exchanges, thinning the circulating float. A thin order book has two sides: it is lighter on the way up, but just as fragile on the way down.
That leveraged buying deserves a closer look. Buying with borrowed USDT means those chips come with a cost basis and liquidation price. After the weekend’s more than $1 billion in liquidations washed through one round, if prices keep moving lower, today’s buyer may become tomorrow’s seller. A withdrawal only shows that the chips left the exchange; where they went and how long they will be held remain invisible.
After five straight red candles, BTC is around $73,500, having already fallen below the 50-week moving average. The 200-day moving average range of $73,000 to $73,600 is the first line of defense right now. The key is whether ETF redemption pressure can ease and whether there is meaningful volume support in this area. If it is lost decisively, the $68,000 area will be the next place to assess support. On the upside, first watch whether it can reclaim the $75,000 to $76,000 range.
The correction in U.S. tech stocks and macro uncertainty are still weighing on the market, so these two pools of capital will likely keep pulling against each other in this gap for a while. Whoever lets go first, the weekly close will give the first answer. The above is only my personal observation and does not constitute any trading advice.
From a liquidity perspective, these two things change two different kinds of supply. ETF redemptions are large-scale passive selling pressure, which is transmitted through market makers to the spot order book. Whale withdrawals reduce the chips that can be sold at any moment on exchanges, thinning the circulating float. A thin order book has two sides: it is lighter on the way up, but just as fragile on the way down.
That leveraged buying deserves a closer look. Buying with borrowed USDT means those chips come with a cost basis and liquidation price. After the weekend’s more than $1 billion in liquidations washed through one round, if prices keep moving lower, today’s buyer may become tomorrow’s seller. A withdrawal only shows that the chips left the exchange; where they went and how long they will be held remain invisible.
After five straight red candles, BTC is around $73,500, having already fallen below the 50-week moving average. The 200-day moving average range of $73,000 to $73,600 is the first line of defense right now. The key is whether ETF redemption pressure can ease and whether there is meaningful volume support in this area. If it is lost decisively, the $68,000 area will be the next place to assess support. On the upside, first watch whether it can reclaim the $75,000 to $76,000 range.
The correction in U.S. tech stocks and macro uncertainty are still weighing on the market, so these two pools of capital will likely keep pulling against each other in this gap for a while. Whoever lets go first, the weekly close will give the first answer. The above is only my personal observation and does not constitute any trading advice.