An'an
Post
盘古-安安
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Bitcoin has been hovering around $83,000 for a week. Neither the bulls nor the bears have much fight left in them.
In the third week of October, the price was stuck between $82,000 and $83,000, in a range as narrow as a box squashed flat. Wintermute says the calm won’t last much longer, and the FOMC meeting on the 28th could be the knife that opens the box. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, there’s still room to talk about the previous high; if it drops below $82,500, a move into the low $70,000s isn’t out of the question.
Ethereum is even more stagnant. It’s been bobbing around $2,500 for nearly ten days, with the 50-day moving average hanging overhead, ETF flows heading out the door for consecutive days, and on-chain supply still inching up. One estimate says that to hit $3,000 this year, ETH first needs to reclaim $2,650 and then hold above $2,825. Every step is an uphill battle.
Solana has at least got a story to tell. Its price has fallen from $125 at the end of September to just over $100. The outline of a head-and-shoulders pattern is faintly visible on the daily chart. If the $100 neckline breaks, the $80 area lies below. But another camp is watching the weekly chart and says a cup-and-handle pattern is taking shape. If SOL can hold above $130, then $215 isn’t a dream. Two camps look at the same chart and see two different worlds—that’s about all the fun left in a bear market.
On the ETF front, Monday saw net inflows of more than $520 million, the biggest in nearly a month. The money is coming back, but not all of it. The Coinbase Premium Index was still negative a few days ago, suggesting U.S. buying wasn’t as aggressive as people had expected.
The macro backdrop is weighing on markets. The Nasdaq had a rough drop last week, and U.S. Treasury yields are still hovering above 5%. Crypto hasn’t crashed, but it can hardly be called strong, either.
A friend who works as a market maker posted a message yesterday. Just one line: “Wait for the 28th.” The image showed an empty trading screen.
No one commented. They’re probably all waiting.
In the third week of October, the price was stuck between $82,000 and $83,000, in a range as narrow as a box squashed flat. Wintermute says the calm won’t last much longer, and the FOMC meeting on the 28th could be the knife that opens the box. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, there’s still room to talk about the previous high; if it drops below $82,500, a move into the low $70,000s isn’t out of the question.
Ethereum is even more stagnant. It’s been bobbing around $2,500 for nearly ten days, with the 50-day moving average hanging overhead, ETF flows heading out the door for consecutive days, and on-chain supply still inching up. One estimate says that to hit $3,000 this year, ETH first needs to reclaim $2,650 and then hold above $2,825. Every step is an uphill battle.
Solana has at least got a story to tell. Its price has fallen from $125 at the end of September to just over $100. The outline of a head-and-shoulders pattern is faintly visible on the daily chart. If the $100 neckline breaks, the $80 area lies below. But another camp is watching the weekly chart and says a cup-and-handle pattern is taking shape. If SOL can hold above $130, then $215 isn’t a dream. Two camps look at the same chart and see two different worlds—that’s about all the fun left in a bear market.
On the ETF front, Monday saw net inflows of more than $520 million, the biggest in nearly a month. The money is coming back, but not all of it. The Coinbase Premium Index was still negative a few days ago, suggesting U.S. buying wasn’t as aggressive as people had expected.
The macro backdrop is weighing on markets. The Nasdaq had a rough drop last week, and U.S. Treasury yields are still hovering above 5%. Crypto hasn’t crashed, but it can hardly be called strong, either.
A friend who works as a market maker posted a message yesterday. Just one line: “Wait for the 28th.” The image showed an empty trading screen.
No one commented. They’re probably all waiting.
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