As scores of investors eagerly awaited the crypto market’s traditional fourth-quarter “Uptober” rally, Wall Street institutions were quietly hitting the brakes behind the scenes, with an unusually sustained wave of outflows lasting an entire week.
【Nearly $1 billion drained at the start of October! Ether spot ETFs see $640 million in outflows over 8 straight days】
According to Cointelegraph and the latest data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of $986 million since the start of October, bringing them close to the $1 billion mark. Redemption pressure has been particularly severe for spot Ether ETFs. They posted another $72.5 million in net outflows on Thursday, extending the run of consecutive outflow days to eight trading days. Since this wave of selling began on September 29, Ether ETFs have seen approximately $641 million in cumulative outflows, including $578 million in net outflows since the start of October alone. By comparison, spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $244 million in net outflows on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s weakness, when they posted their largest single-day outflow since the end of June ($485 million). Bitcoin ETF net outflows for October have now reached $407 million.
【Spot Ether under pressure: a divergence between on-chain structure and institutional pricing】
What does this mean for readers? In the past, the market often viewed ETFs as one-way reservoirs that only took in funds. But this latest data reveals how decisively institutional capital can turn away amid macroeconomic risk aversion. Ether (ETH) has been hit harder than Bitcoin in this wave of outflows, largely because currently listed spot ETFs do not offer staking rewards. When real yields on U.S. Treasuries and demand for geopolitical hedges are elevated, institutions holding non-yielding spot Ether shares are more inclined to exit their positions first.
Looking at spot and derivatives market structure, ETH briefly fell to a previous low of $2,406 on Thursday before bouncing on spot buying and consolidating around $2,500. Binance’s 24-hour spot trading volume remained near $1 billion. Meanwhile, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts on Binance dipped slightly below zero to around -0.0014%, reflecting how much long-side leverage in futures contracts has been flushed out by this wave of consecutive redemptions. In the short term, downward selling pressure is mainly coming from passive institutional redemptions rather than speculative liquidations.
【Key factors to watch】
As institutional capital retreats defensively at the start of October, focus on two objective signals to determine whether the market can form a bottom and resume its upward move:
First, a reversal in fund flows would be signaled by “the end of consecutive net outflows from Ether ETFs, followed by substantial net inflows of more than $50 million in a single day.” If the market relies solely on retail spot buying on-chain, it will be difficult to offset the liquidity gap created by institutional withdrawals. A Glassnode research report also notes that a recent bottoming rebound will have substantive fundamental support only when actual spot trading volume and ETF buying recover in tandem;
Second, from a technical perspective, ETH needs to hold the multiple-bottom neckline support between $2,400 and $2,420 on the daily chart. If it can hold this line and break through the $2,560–$2,600 resistance zone on rising volume, the price could move higher to test the $2,700 level. Conversely, if the wave of consecutive ETF outflows continues and ETH falls below the key previous low of $2,380, the price could seek support further down in the $2,250–$2,300 zone, where long-term holdings are heavily concentrated.
These are personal views and an overview of information, not investment advice. DYOR.
$ETH #Ethereum #Crypto
【Nearly $1 billion drained at the start of October! Ether spot ETFs see $640 million in outflows over 8 straight days】
According to Cointelegraph and the latest data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of $986 million since the start of October, bringing them close to the $1 billion mark. Redemption pressure has been particularly severe for spot Ether ETFs. They posted another $72.5 million in net outflows on Thursday, extending the run of consecutive outflow days to eight trading days. Since this wave of selling began on September 29, Ether ETFs have seen approximately $641 million in cumulative outflows, including $578 million in net outflows since the start of October alone. By comparison, spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $244 million in net outflows on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s weakness, when they posted their largest single-day outflow since the end of June ($485 million). Bitcoin ETF net outflows for October have now reached $407 million.
【Spot Ether under pressure: a divergence between on-chain structure and institutional pricing】
What does this mean for readers? In the past, the market often viewed ETFs as one-way reservoirs that only took in funds. But this latest data reveals how decisively institutional capital can turn away amid macroeconomic risk aversion. Ether (ETH) has been hit harder than Bitcoin in this wave of outflows, largely because currently listed spot ETFs do not offer staking rewards. When real yields on U.S. Treasuries and demand for geopolitical hedges are elevated, institutions holding non-yielding spot Ether shares are more inclined to exit their positions first.
Looking at spot and derivatives market structure, ETH briefly fell to a previous low of $2,406 on Thursday before bouncing on spot buying and consolidating around $2,500. Binance’s 24-hour spot trading volume remained near $1 billion. Meanwhile, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts on Binance dipped slightly below zero to around -0.0014%, reflecting how much long-side leverage in futures contracts has been flushed out by this wave of consecutive redemptions. In the short term, downward selling pressure is mainly coming from passive institutional redemptions rather than speculative liquidations.
【Key factors to watch】
As institutional capital retreats defensively at the start of October, focus on two objective signals to determine whether the market can form a bottom and resume its upward move:
First, a reversal in fund flows would be signaled by “the end of consecutive net outflows from Ether ETFs, followed by substantial net inflows of more than $50 million in a single day.” If the market relies solely on retail spot buying on-chain, it will be difficult to offset the liquidity gap created by institutional withdrawals. A Glassnode research report also notes that a recent bottoming rebound will have substantive fundamental support only when actual spot trading volume and ETF buying recover in tandem;
Second, from a technical perspective, ETH needs to hold the multiple-bottom neckline support between $2,400 and $2,420 on the daily chart. If it can hold this line and break through the $2,560–$2,600 resistance zone on rising volume, the price could move higher to test the $2,700 level. Conversely, if the wave of consecutive ETF outflows continues and ETH falls below the key previous low of $2,380, the price could seek support further down in the $2,250–$2,300 zone, where long-term holdings are heavily concentrated.
These are personal views and an overview of information, not investment advice. DYOR.
$ETH #Ethereum #Crypto