قال شون فاريل، رئيس استراتيجية الأصول الرقمية في Fundstrat، إن تزايد الضغط في سوق السندات الأمريكية قد يتحول إلى محفز صعودي قوي للبيتكوين. يرى فاريل أن هناك إشارات كافية على أن البيتكوين كوّن قاع دورة مستداماً، وأن الظروف الاقتصادية الكلية بدأت تدعم اتجاهات السيولة في سوق العملات الرقمية. ويتوقع أن يتجاوز البيتكوين مستوى 100 ألف دولار قبل نهاية 2026.
Why might bonds support Bitcoin?
In an interview with the Coinage platform, Farrell linked the rise in U.S. bond yields to the country’s financial situation. The debt-to-GDP ratio is above 120%, and the budget deficit is around 6–7% of GDP. High interest increases the cost of government borrowing. In his view, this may prompt the Treasury to reduce the supply of long-term bonds and issue more short-term Treasury bills.
Farrell believes that funding the buyback of long-term bonds with short-term bonds amounts to market intervention and could increase liquidity. If banks absorb the growing supply of bonds, that could support the creation of money in the private sector over time. He thinks this may lead, gradually, to the erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power and pave the way for relatively better performance from scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
The analyst emphasized that this process could take years and would not be a sudden break. Farrell likened the erosion of money’s value to “a cube of ice melting slowly.” He also considered that Bitcoin’s relatively limited drop in the recent bear market, compared to previous cycles, could be an indicator of this structural shift.
“Could exceed $100,000 in 2026”
Farrell does not rule out a short-term correction. But he believes that if Bitcoin falls about 10% from current levels, strong buyers will appear again. He had set a target of $115,000 at the start of the year, but he no longer expects it to be reached in 2026, with the possibility of exceeding $100,000 still remaining.
Technical picture
Farrell said that the price rising above the 200-day moving average after a long period below it is historically a positive signal. He believes the most important development is the clear breakout of Bitcoin above the 50-week moving average that occurred weeks ago, which may indicate a shift in the long-term market regime and open the door to inflows of new capital from trend-following strategies.
What is he watching?
The analyst is closely watching the upcoming quarterly funding announcement by the U.S. Treasury Department. If the Treasury cuts the issuance of 10- to 30-year bonds or becomes more aggressive in issuing them, that could be a “very strong” catalyst for Bitcoin, as he put it.