Latest views on BTC:
1. 83,000–84,000 does form a tactical support zone, but it is not an unconditional dip-buying area. The position with the best odds is around 83,500, not the current price near 84,400.
2. On the perpetual side, participants are actively selling or reducing positions, but in the past hour there has been some spot absorption, and the price has not continued to drop. This suggests there is support around 83,000–84,000, but the strength of that support is not high enough—especially since the 24-hour spot CVD is still negative.
3. The ETF and CME are closed, so perpetuals are taking on more of the price discovery. The quality of confirmed trading volume and order flow needs to be discounted. Holding the level over the weekend does not guarantee it will hold once liquidity fully returns on Monday.
4. STH profitable supply accounts for 94.1%, and short-term holders are generally in the green. This both indicates structural recovery and also implies that profit-taking around 85,000 is likely.
5. The accumulation trend score is only 0.37, still leaning toward distribution. This indicates that the people buying the bottom are continuously selling.
6. Stablecoins have had net outflows of about $602 million over the past 7 days.
Mainly stay on the sidelines.
1. 83,000–84,000 does form a tactical support zone, but it is not an unconditional dip-buying area. The position with the best odds is around 83,500, not the current price near 84,400.
2. On the perpetual side, participants are actively selling or reducing positions, but in the past hour there has been some spot absorption, and the price has not continued to drop. This suggests there is support around 83,000–84,000, but the strength of that support is not high enough—especially since the 24-hour spot CVD is still negative.
3. The ETF and CME are closed, so perpetuals are taking on more of the price discovery. The quality of confirmed trading volume and order flow needs to be discounted. Holding the level over the weekend does not guarantee it will hold once liquidity fully returns on Monday.
4. STH profitable supply accounts for 94.1%, and short-term holders are generally in the green. This both indicates structural recovery and also implies that profit-taking around 85,000 is likely.
5. The accumulation trend score is only 0.37, still leaning toward distribution. This indicates that the people buying the bottom are continuously selling.
6. Stablecoins have had net outflows of about $602 million over the past 7 days.
Mainly stay on the sidelines.