#140亿美元比特币期权周五到期
On Friday morning at 8 o'clock, a batch of options is due to be settled—over $16 billion, one of the largest in terms of scale this year.. Many people’s first reaction is, "This means a reversal is coming".. I went through the position structure from that order, and the more I looked, the more I found it interesting..
💬 想听真话的进群
Most people see it as "the option expiration amplifies volatility".. What’s really worth watching is something else—this move from 80,000 up to 87,000: part of the buying pressure wasn’t put in by someone bullish, it was forced buying..
The principle isn’t complicated.. Someone sold call options, and as the price rises, these people have to go into the spot market to top up and hedge so they don’t lose.. The more the price goes up, the more they have to buy, and so the rally feeds itself..
That’s what’s strange.. In the same stretch of price action, two kinds of money are mixed together: one is real conviction that came in on its own; the other is a passive byproduct that followed along.. The candlesticks look identical, but the underlying value is very different..
Putting the numbers side by side makes it clearer.. Bitcoin options expiring on Friday total nearly $16 billion; just this single item cuts 37% of that options trading venue’s open interest in Bitcoin.. The ratio of open interest between puts and calls is 0.69. Out of the $9.4 billion in calls, more than half is already in profit right now, while on the put side that half is basically rendered invalid..
What’s even more interesting is the claim that "on expiration day, price gets pulled toward the maximum pain point".. This time Bitcoin’s maximum pain point calculates to 75,000—still a full 10,000 away from the current price of 85,000.. This time that magnet didn’t manage to pull the price in, which indicates the sellers in this round didn’t have the ability to yank the price down..
But here’s the question.. On the settlement day, the passive buying that propped up this leg of the rally will exit.. After it’s removed, who the direction truly belongs to—that’s what’s really worth keeping an eye on..
If after settlement the price holds steadily above 85,000, it means the demand being met is solid, real spot demand; this round of action will be much tougher than the "hedging byproduct" explanation.. If after settlement it keeps drifting lower into a downtrend, then in the segment from 80,000 to 87,000 in the first few days, there was really only one hand propping it up from below..
This is where it gets intriguing.. There’s a thick pile of call options in the 100,000 strike range, and several large orders are already sitting right next to the current price.. After this round of settlement, will the next round again grow another batch of hands to prop it up—whether that becomes the main thing to watch in the coming weeks..
As for whether there will be a reversal on Friday, I won’t make a conclusion.. What’s truly worth watching is the settlement day itself: who exactly is taking the buys..
On Friday morning at 8 o'clock, a batch of options is due to be settled—over $16 billion, one of the largest in terms of scale this year.. Many people’s first reaction is, "This means a reversal is coming".. I went through the position structure from that order, and the more I looked, the more I found it interesting..
💬 想听真话的进群
Most people see it as "the option expiration amplifies volatility".. What’s really worth watching is something else—this move from 80,000 up to 87,000: part of the buying pressure wasn’t put in by someone bullish, it was forced buying..
The principle isn’t complicated.. Someone sold call options, and as the price rises, these people have to go into the spot market to top up and hedge so they don’t lose.. The more the price goes up, the more they have to buy, and so the rally feeds itself..
That’s what’s strange.. In the same stretch of price action, two kinds of money are mixed together: one is real conviction that came in on its own; the other is a passive byproduct that followed along.. The candlesticks look identical, but the underlying value is very different..
Putting the numbers side by side makes it clearer.. Bitcoin options expiring on Friday total nearly $16 billion; just this single item cuts 37% of that options trading venue’s open interest in Bitcoin.. The ratio of open interest between puts and calls is 0.69. Out of the $9.4 billion in calls, more than half is already in profit right now, while on the put side that half is basically rendered invalid..
What’s even more interesting is the claim that "on expiration day, price gets pulled toward the maximum pain point".. This time Bitcoin’s maximum pain point calculates to 75,000—still a full 10,000 away from the current price of 85,000.. This time that magnet didn’t manage to pull the price in, which indicates the sellers in this round didn’t have the ability to yank the price down..
But here’s the question.. On the settlement day, the passive buying that propped up this leg of the rally will exit.. After it’s removed, who the direction truly belongs to—that’s what’s really worth keeping an eye on..
If after settlement the price holds steadily above 85,000, it means the demand being met is solid, real spot demand; this round of action will be much tougher than the "hedging byproduct" explanation.. If after settlement it keeps drifting lower into a downtrend, then in the segment from 80,000 to 87,000 in the first few days, there was really only one hand propping it up from below..
This is where it gets intriguing.. There’s a thick pile of call options in the 100,000 strike range, and several large orders are already sitting right next to the current price.. After this round of settlement, will the next round again grow another batch of hands to prop it up—whether that becomes the main thing to watch in the coming weeks..
As for whether there will be a reversal on Friday, I won’t make a conclusion.. What’s truly worth watching is the settlement day itself: who exactly is taking the buys..
