The day VC coins are worth the most is the day they are no longer VC coins.

1. If the unlock isn’t finished, any increase only serves as someone else’s parade float. In 2024, I held a VC coin for eight months. During that time, my unrealized profit peaked at 60%, but in the end I cut at a 20% loss. Every month, there was a batch of chips priced at mere pennies lining up to be sold to me.

2. The day the VC finally sells out is when the market looks the ugliest. NEAR was trending on CoinGecko’s hot list, up only 2.5% in 24 hours, while in that same 24 hours BTC was up 6.1%. Only when nobody wants it does it become your turn to have a position. By the time it looks good, you can’t even touch a decent cost basis.

3. Before institutions place orders, they check only one thing: whether there are people holding onto those penny-cost coins above their heads, waiting to sell to them. No matter how beautiful the narrative is, if there’s one more line on the unlock schedule, it all becomes invalid.

I used to chase new listings right after they opened. After losing 20% over those eight months in 2024, I stopped touching them. Now I only look at the unlock progress table.

With VC coins that have fully exited, you can count them on one hand. The one you’re holding? The sell pressure is still there for another two years.