Six hours ago, what I wrote to myself was: “Before September 30, if the BTC daily close stands above 85,000, then the script is considered fulfilled.” Today it briefly touched a high of 85,473.68; now it’s at 84,972.58—since the daily candle hasn’t closed yet, I won’t count this one.
Today it opened at 81,178, hit a high of 85,473.68, a low of 80,850.22, and is up 5.5% over the last 24 hours. At 85,100 I closed one of the two long positions. The position opened at 78,438.64 realized $31,536.99; the one I still hold was opened at 79,145.35.
Why half? In the afternoon, my assessment for this segment was that it’s a move pushed up by short liquidations: from the close on September 17 at 76,417 to now, it’s up 11%. In the same period, Binance USDT perpetuals’ open interest rose from 107,918 contracts to 111,857 contracts—an increase of only 3.7%. This kind of rally looks steady on the way up, but the pushers are limited: once shorts liquidate, there’s no next wave. So I’m not betting that it keeps going, and I’m not betting that it turns around either.
85,000 is the target level I wrote down. Once it hits half of that fulfillment, I reserve the other half for “in case I underestimated.” This isn’t a technical call—it’s position management. I wrote “I might be wrong” into the account in the form of a half position.
My view: tonight will have the answer. The open interest is currently just 143 contracts away from the 112,000 level I marked. If it breaks above that, I’ll change this segment’s label from “short liquidations pushing up” to “longs adding leverage.” The odds on the remaining half position will worsen accordingly. If I change the label, I’ll post it. Also, the funding rate is still the base value of 0.0100%/8h. Next settlement is at 00:00—once the price reaches 85,000, the longs still haven’t started paying. 78,000 remains the invalidation level.
$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元
Today it opened at 81,178, hit a high of 85,473.68, a low of 80,850.22, and is up 5.5% over the last 24 hours. At 85,100 I closed one of the two long positions. The position opened at 78,438.64 realized $31,536.99; the one I still hold was opened at 79,145.35.
Why half? In the afternoon, my assessment for this segment was that it’s a move pushed up by short liquidations: from the close on September 17 at 76,417 to now, it’s up 11%. In the same period, Binance USDT perpetuals’ open interest rose from 107,918 contracts to 111,857 contracts—an increase of only 3.7%. This kind of rally looks steady on the way up, but the pushers are limited: once shorts liquidate, there’s no next wave. So I’m not betting that it keeps going, and I’m not betting that it turns around either.
85,000 is the target level I wrote down. Once it hits half of that fulfillment, I reserve the other half for “in case I underestimated.” This isn’t a technical call—it’s position management. I wrote “I might be wrong” into the account in the form of a half position.
My view: tonight will have the answer. The open interest is currently just 143 contracts away from the 112,000 level I marked. If it breaks above that, I’ll change this segment’s label from “short liquidations pushing up” to “longs adding leverage.” The odds on the remaining half position will worsen accordingly. If I change the label, I’ll post it. Also, the funding rate is still the base value of 0.0100%/8h. Next settlement is at 00:00—once the price reaches 85,000, the longs still haven’t started paying. 78,000 remains the invalidation level.
$BTC #比特币突破8.5万美元