Tomorrow the Fed chair will meet in Chicago regarding monetary policy, and the markets are anticipating it—will it be tightening or easing? 👇

🔥 Bitcoin on Monday, September 21, 2026 | The most important news and influencing factors
I’m heading into Monday and I’m not watching Bitcoin just from the chart, because the current move is strongly tied to the U.S. macro—especially after the latest Fed decision.
Bitcoin finished last week after reclaiming the $80,000 area, but the picture isn’t a straightforward uptrend without risks; because the market is still trying to absorb the rate hikes, and at the same time there was a strong return of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in the last session of the week.
🟠 First thing I’m watching tomorrow: the Fed
Tomorrow, Monday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak about monetary policy.
And this is very important because the Fed raised rates last week to 3.75% – 4.00%, while comments from Fed members after the decision will give the market an idea of the next step.
If Goolsbee’s remarks are hawkish, meaning a focus on inflation and the need to keep rates elevated:
Dollar ↑
Yields ↑
Liquidity ↓
Bitcoin under pressure 🔴
But if his tone is calmer and he focuses on the risks of economic slowdown and the need to ease policy in the future:
Dollar ↓
Yields ↓
Liquidity improves
Bitcoin may get support 🟢
Goolsbee’s scheduled talk tomorrow is at 6:30 AM New York time.
---
🟢 Second thing: Bitcoin ETF
This is one of the most important points I’m watching.
U.S. Bitcoin Spot funds ended last week with net inflows of only about $6.2 million, but on Friday alone they received around $433 million.
And the most important thing is:
Fidelity FBTC ≈ +310.7M$
BlackRock IBIT ≈ +108.4M$
Meaning Friday saw a strong return of buying after large outflows on Tuesday and Wednesday.
But I do not want to treat that alone as a bullish signal; because the weekly picture was almost neutral, so I will watch the first new session’s flows in the week to see whether money continued to come in or whether Friday’s move was just a rebound.
---
🔴 Third thing: The Fed is still a pressure on BTC
Today, comments came from Fed member Neel Kashkari, who said inflation remains elevated across sectors of the economy, not just because of oil.
He also said most Fed officials expect at least one more hike this year.
This is a very important point for me, because the market cannot ignore it.
If this tone continues:
Hawkish Fed → higher rates for longer → DXY ↑ → yields ↑ → pressure on BTC
Especially if strong U.S. economic data comes in.
---
🟡 Fourth thing: Bitcoin itself
The latest available reading today shows BTC trading around 80.3K$, with a slight decline over 24 hours.
And the data indicates that Open Interest fell by about 6.16%, which is important because part of the leverage and speculation has been reduced.
In other words:
The recent rise was not only due to increased leverage; there was also a position-cleanup process.
But that makes me watch both together:
Spot Buying
and
Open Interest
If price rises with Spot Volume and ETF inflows, while OI rises gradually rather than explosively, the move is healthier.
But if BTC rises quickly with sharp increases in OI and Funding, I watch for the possibility of more leverage and liquidations.
---
🟠 Fifth thing: the 80,000$ level
For me, this level is important psychologically and technically.
Bitcoin managed to move back above 80K, but the real question is not:
"Did it reach 80K?"
The question:
Can it hold it?
If it holds the zone and starts building above it, I watch for continuation toward the next resistance.
But if it loses 80K and the breakout becomes a false breakout, I will watch the next support zones instead of chasing price.
The latest available price analysis places the 80,250–80,880$ area as short-term support, with nearby resistance around 81,900$, while a break of support could open the door to testing a lower area near 78,300$. These are analytical levels, not a guarantee of price movement.
---
🔵 Sixth thing: the dollar DXY
For me this is the most important external indicator with BTC tomorrow.
I do not just want to know:
BTC ↑ or ↓
I want to know:
What is the dollar doing at the same moment?
If the Fed remarks are strong:
DXY ↑
⬇️
BTC may come under pressure.
If the remarks are less hawkish:
DXY ↓
⬇️
BTC may get room to move higher.
So when the Fed news comes out, I will watch BTC + DXY + bond yields together.
---
🟣 Seventh thing: bond yields
The 10Y has become a very important factor in the market.
If yields rise after the Fed remarks:
10Y ↑ + DXY ↑
that is not a comfortable environment for Bitcoin.
As for:
10Y ↓ + DXY ↓
then the macro environment becomes relatively better for high-risk assets.
And here I do not want to see BTC move on its own; I want to know whether macro confirms it or contradicts it.
---
🌎 Eighth thing: America and China
There are also important political and economic developments between the United States and China.
Today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to prepare for the upcoming talks between Trump and Xi Jinping.
The files include trade, tariffs, technology, and critical minerals.
Any improvement in trade relations could support global risk appetite, while any escalation could push markets to reduce risk.
And for me I’m watching the effect of the news on:
Nasdaq + DXY + gold + BTC
And not BTC alone.
---
⚠️ Ninth thing: geopolitical tensions
Bitcoin came under some pressure over the weekend as geopolitical concerns returned, and risk appetite in the market declined.
This matters because although BTC is sometimes treated as an alternative asset, in periods of extreme fear it can move with risk assets instead of behaving like gold.
So:
Strong geopolitical escalation
Could mean:
Gold ↑
Dollar ↑
But BTC may come under pressure because of Risk-Off.
But if geopolitical risks ease, risk appetite may return to digital assets.
---
🔥 Tenth thing: what about upcoming economic news?
Tomorrow, Monday, we do not have a major U.S. inflation release like CPI or PCE.
But that does not mean the day is calm.
Because the whole week contains a large number of Fed remarks.
Tuesday:
Williams + Jefferson + Barkin
Wednesday:
U.S. PMI + Barr
Thursday:
Jobless Claims + Williams + Barkin
Friday:
Durable Goods + Michigan Consumer Sentiment
And these data will matter because they may change market expectations for the rate path after the September hike.
---
📊 The two most important scenarios I’m watching tomorrow
🟢 First scenario
Goolsbee is calm
⬇️
DXY ↓
⬇️
10Y ↓
⬇️
ETF inflows continue
⬇️
Spot Volume ↑
⬇️
BTC holds 80K
Here I watch whether momentum continues and whether the next resistance can be tested.
---
🔴 Second scenario
Goolsbee hawkish
⬇️
DXY ↑
⬇️
10Y ↑
⬇️
Weak/negative ETF flows
⬇️
BTC loses 80K
Here the probability of a correction becomes higher, and I watch support zones instead of chasing a fast move.
---
🧠 The takeaway I’m reaching for Monday
I am not saying:
"Bitcoin is up because ETFs came in."
Or I say:
"Bitcoin is down because the Fed raised rates."
The picture is more complex than that.
What I’m watching tomorrow is:
BTC Price
+
ETF Flows
+
Spot Volume
+
Open Interest
+
Funding
+
DXY
+
10Y
+
Fed Speakers
+
Geopolitics
If several factors align in the same direction, the move becomes more important.
But if price rises while the dollar and yields are rising and ETFs are not confirming the move, I do not chase the rally.
🔥 My most important point tomorrow:
80,000$ is the test zone.
Above it, with real liquidity coming in = I watch for continuation.
Below that, with DXY and yields high = I watch for a possible correction.
And the most important thing: I do not enter because of the news itself; I wait for price reaction to my zone after the news.