#日本央行加息日元反跌 Risk assets collectively rebound
The Bank of Japan raised rates as expected today, the fastest tightening pace since 1990. As a result, the yen didn’t rise—instead it was smashed lower. The market felt the力度 wasn’t hawkish enough, so it flipped direction and went long risk assets directly.
$BTC quotes 77482 USDT, up 1.26% in 24h; $ETH quotes 2477 USDT, up 1.43%. Everything is rising.
Put simply, the market’s mindset is pretty twisted right now. Rate hikes themselves are tightening, but everyone is hoping for even harsher tightening. When mild moves are seen, they get treated as good news. The yen is used as fuel to pile into positions. This is the opposite of what happened when the yen carry trade blew up back in August. Then, an upside surprise in rate hikes smashed risk assets. Now, when it’s “not hawkish enough,” it’s loosening the reins instead.
I don’t really believe this kind of rebound can go very far. If the yen keeps drifting lower, the carry-trade bullets are still on the way. In the short term, risk assets may still see another round. But when the market finally catches on—realizing that global central banks are still moving tighter, and that liquidity is being drained from the pool—then this rebound will have been a premature sprint.
What do you think: Is this rebound the start of a new round of risk appetite, or is it a getaway window for trapped positions?
The Bank of Japan raised rates as expected today, the fastest tightening pace since 1990. As a result, the yen didn’t rise—instead it was smashed lower. The market felt the力度 wasn’t hawkish enough, so it flipped direction and went long risk assets directly.
$BTC quotes 77482 USDT, up 1.26% in 24h; $ETH quotes 2477 USDT, up 1.43%. Everything is rising.
Put simply, the market’s mindset is pretty twisted right now. Rate hikes themselves are tightening, but everyone is hoping for even harsher tightening. When mild moves are seen, they get treated as good news. The yen is used as fuel to pile into positions. This is the opposite of what happened when the yen carry trade blew up back in August. Then, an upside surprise in rate hikes smashed risk assets. Now, when it’s “not hawkish enough,” it’s loosening the reins instead.
I don’t really believe this kind of rebound can go very far. If the yen keeps drifting lower, the carry-trade bullets are still on the way. In the short term, risk assets may still see another round. But when the market finally catches on—realizing that global central banks are still moving tighter, and that liquidity is being drained from the pool—then this rebound will have been a premature sprint.
What do you think: Is this rebound the start of a new round of risk appetite, or is it a getaway window for trapped positions?