$1.7M Notional Finance custody contract suspected to have been stolen, with 689.2 ETH withdrawn and sent to Tornado Cash; at the same time, an anonymous whale sold all 167,855 ETH within five days, with a nominal value of about $408M.
First, DeFi security confidence and ETH’s potential sell pressure changed on-chain; if funds continue flowing to exchanges, it would only then turn into real spot sell orders, pressuring ETH and dragging down risk appetite for DeFi assets like AAVE and UNI.
But the price didn’t collapse in sync: as of 16:05, $ETH was at 2506.6 USDT, up 4.1% over the past 24 hours, and down only 0.15% over the past hour.
This suggests the market is currently treating the two pieces of news as short-term sentiment shocks, or that buy-side demand is temporarily absorbing the sell pressure without confirming a trend reversal.
I think the short-term outlook for ETH is bearish, but more like a one- to two-day stress test; only if large amounts of ETH continue to enter exchanges, and the price breaks below the starting point of the 24-hour gains, will the short thesis be confirmed.
If ETH holds above 2500, the whale’s balance doesn’t continue to flow out, or if Notional is ultimately proven to be only a localized incident, then this assessment will become invalid.
$ETH #以太坊ETF #long-short data
First, DeFi security confidence and ETH’s potential sell pressure changed on-chain; if funds continue flowing to exchanges, it would only then turn into real spot sell orders, pressuring ETH and dragging down risk appetite for DeFi assets like AAVE and UNI.
But the price didn’t collapse in sync: as of 16:05, $ETH was at 2506.6 USDT, up 4.1% over the past 24 hours, and down only 0.15% over the past hour.
This suggests the market is currently treating the two pieces of news as short-term sentiment shocks, or that buy-side demand is temporarily absorbing the sell pressure without confirming a trend reversal.
I think the short-term outlook for ETH is bearish, but more like a one- to two-day stress test; only if large amounts of ETH continue to enter exchanges, and the price breaks below the starting point of the 24-hour gains, will the short thesis be confirmed.
If ETH holds above 2500, the whale’s balance doesn’t continue to flow out, or if Notional is ultimately proven to be only a localized incident, then this assessment will become invalid.
$ETH #以太坊ETF #long-short data
