š The weak US dollar is forcing a global repricing of assetsāand Bitcoin is lagging behind.
The yuan has risen to a three-year high, while the central bank is actually pushing it in the other direction.
First, look at the dollar. The index is down to around 99.7, near a three-month low, falling more than 2% since the end of July. Gold is even crazier: in August itās up 14%, topping out at $4,700. Then Warsh turned hawkish at Jackson Holeāgoldās biggest single-day drop since July, falling back to $4,575. The yuan versus the US dollar has climbed to a three-year high. The PBOC weakened the midpoint rate, worried that exports will be āeaten upā by FX moves.
In plain terms: gold is up, the yuan is upāeveryone is re-pricing the world around a weaker dollar.
But Bitcoin didnāt keep up. BTC is now at $80,536. Itās not tracking either gold or the yuan. It canāt wear the ādigital goldā hat right now.
No beating around the bush. Gold and the yuan are feeding on one leg of the marketāmoney. Bitcoin is feeding on the other legārisk assets. Warsh is talking about rate hikes; a weak dollar is a different story. With both pulling in opposite directions, BTC is stuck in the middle. The more hawkish the Fed becomes, the more it gets treated like a high-beta tech stock to be sold.
My take: a weak dollar is a tailwind for BTC, but itās not yet the point where that tailwind gets realized. Once rate-hike expectations truly burn out, $80k will be the start of a proper catch-up move. Until then, itās just a risk asset that canāt keep up with gold.
$BTC $XAU
#äøę¬čŖå½é ē¤¾åŗBaoluoåøåčµę¬ #å®č§ē»ęµ #äŗŗę°åø
The yuan has risen to a three-year high, while the central bank is actually pushing it in the other direction.
First, look at the dollar. The index is down to around 99.7, near a three-month low, falling more than 2% since the end of July. Gold is even crazier: in August itās up 14%, topping out at $4,700. Then Warsh turned hawkish at Jackson Holeāgoldās biggest single-day drop since July, falling back to $4,575. The yuan versus the US dollar has climbed to a three-year high. The PBOC weakened the midpoint rate, worried that exports will be āeaten upā by FX moves.
In plain terms: gold is up, the yuan is upāeveryone is re-pricing the world around a weaker dollar.
But Bitcoin didnāt keep up. BTC is now at $80,536. Itās not tracking either gold or the yuan. It canāt wear the ādigital goldā hat right now.
No beating around the bush. Gold and the yuan are feeding on one leg of the marketāmoney. Bitcoin is feeding on the other legārisk assets. Warsh is talking about rate hikes; a weak dollar is a different story. With both pulling in opposite directions, BTC is stuck in the middle. The more hawkish the Fed becomes, the more it gets treated like a high-beta tech stock to be sold.
My take: a weak dollar is a tailwind for BTC, but itās not yet the point where that tailwind gets realized. Once rate-hike expectations truly burn out, $80k will be the start of a proper catch-up move. Until then, itās just a risk asset that canāt keep up with gold.
$BTC $XAU
#äøę¬čŖå½é ē¤¾åŗBaoluoåøåčµę¬ #å®č§ē»ęµ #äŗŗę°åø
