Early in the morning, BTC and ETH, along with the entire cryptocurrency market, experienced a sharp decline, with BTC falling below 78000 and ETH dropping below 2300.
When the price fell to 78700, market sentiment wavered. Although some still insisted on being bullish to 250,000 USD, more people began to ask: How long will the adjustment last? Where exactly is the bottom?
Rather than looking for support on the charts or guessing short-term points, it is better to return to the essence—the formation of a true bottom never depends on the price itself but is determined by two core conditions.
First, the end of liquidity contraction.
As long as global monetary policy remains in a 'tightening' mode, risk assets will struggle to find a safety net. Only when the interest rate hike cycle approaches its end and discussions of a reversal arise can the market truly gain breathing space. Until then, no matter how grand the narrative, macro pressures will be transmitted layer by layer, suppressing any attempts at a rebound.
Second, leverage has been completely cleared.
The essence of a bear market is not the decline in prices, but the complete uprooting of leveraged positions. Only when speculators relying on loans are completely out can the market break free from heavy selling pressure. If platform risks or policy shocks are encountered at this time, it will be necessary to wait for panic sentiment to be fully released.
In addition to the above conditions, a typical signal often accompanies the bottom - extreme boredom.
The true bottom area often lacks drama: prices no longer plummet, yet no one is willing to chase the rise. On-chain activity declines, community discussions cool, and trading volume continues to shrink. Behind this state is that those who urgently needed to cash out have sold everything, leaving only long-term holders and those no longer watching the market. When aggressive funds are cleared out, the market enters a state of 'no one cares' balance - the pessimists have left, and the optimists have no bullets, leading to a gradual quiet. This silence often resembles a bottom more than a crash.
The initiation of a new round of market trends always hinges on incremental capital. When external funds begin to change their views and enter the market with cash, buying pressure will increase. In a market that is already very light on chips, the inflow of marginal funds can leverage the trend.
History often repeats itself. Liquidity crises often drive prices below miners' costs, and panic reaches its peak. However, the lowest point is often reached instantaneously in a 'spike' form, making it extremely difficult to accurately capture. Rather than obsessing over buying at the absolute lowest price, it is better to wait for confirmation on the right side of the trend, stabilization of fundamentals, and gradual repair of market sentiment.
The true value low often occurs when people have lost interest in discussion. Just like at the end of 2018, when miners started to liquidate their equipment at low prices and asserted that the industry would 'return to zero', the market had actually been quietly bottoming out. The hardest part is not judging the price but maintaining clarity in extreme pessimism.
The bottom is not a momentary flash, but an awakening after a long silence. When the market is no longer eye-catching, the real turning point may have already sprouted in the dark.
$BTC $ETH #特币ETF净流入流出 #美国PPI数据高于预期
