NVDA is currently hovering around 219.35u, grinding right along the 24-hour low of 218.6. For now, I’m not taking a side here.
First, the bad side. Over the last 4 hours, six consecutive K-lines have been trending down. The daily chart is also bearish. Price can’t even reclaim the 20/50 moving averages on the 15-minute chart. So in the short term, the trend is still clearly being held down.
But the good side is also there: after falling for a day, the contract open interest actually dropped by nearly 4%, which suggests a lot of leveraged capital has already pulled out. The funding rate is still 0, so longs aren’t crowded—there isn’t a pile of leverage stacked up just waiting to get squeezed lower. Also, over the past 7 hours, large traders’ futures long positions have quietly been adding, and the passive buy flow has accounted for a bit more than half.
In plain terms, you’ve got both: it’s “unable to fall further” and “not yet lifted up.” The downside momentum is clearly weakening. The low at 218.6 hasn’t been broken, but there’s also no volume-driven rebound back above the moving averages to confirm.
So my stance is to stay on the sidelines. Chasing a short here has mediocre risk-reward, because the leverage that should have been removed is already mostly gone—there’s limited room for oil to keep falling. Chasing a long doesn’t have confirmation either; the trend is still pressing down. Either wait for a breakdown below 218.6 with confirmed bearish extension, or wait for price to reclaim the moving averages and repeatedly hold the lows before considering a long.
Until price gives direction, watch how the money chooses.
#nvda $NVDA
First, the bad side. Over the last 4 hours, six consecutive K-lines have been trending down. The daily chart is also bearish. Price can’t even reclaim the 20/50 moving averages on the 15-minute chart. So in the short term, the trend is still clearly being held down.
But the good side is also there: after falling for a day, the contract open interest actually dropped by nearly 4%, which suggests a lot of leveraged capital has already pulled out. The funding rate is still 0, so longs aren’t crowded—there isn’t a pile of leverage stacked up just waiting to get squeezed lower. Also, over the past 7 hours, large traders’ futures long positions have quietly been adding, and the passive buy flow has accounted for a bit more than half.
In plain terms, you’ve got both: it’s “unable to fall further” and “not yet lifted up.” The downside momentum is clearly weakening. The low at 218.6 hasn’t been broken, but there’s also no volume-driven rebound back above the moving averages to confirm.
So my stance is to stay on the sidelines. Chasing a short here has mediocre risk-reward, because the leverage that should have been removed is already mostly gone—there’s limited room for oil to keep falling. Chasing a long doesn’t have confirmation either; the trend is still pressing down. Either wait for a breakdown below 218.6 with confirmed bearish extension, or wait for price to reclaim the moving averages and repeatedly hold the lows before considering a long.
Until price gives direction, watch how the money chooses.
#nvda $NVDA