Employment has clearly cooled down, but wages haven’t cooled yet

As US employment begins to visibly slow, BTC’s short-term outlook is slightly bullish.

In July, ADP private-sector employment added only 44,000 jobs,
while the market had expected around 70,000.

The prior figure was 95,000.

In other words:

In just one month, it was cut by more than half.

And it’s also the lowest growth rate since the start of this year.

This will ease pressure for the Federal Reserve to keep high interest rates for now.

But don’t ignore one problem:

While it’s getting harder to hire people,

employee wages from job-hopping are still rising.

Wages for retained employees are up 4.4% year over year,
while for job-hoppers it’s even higher at +7%.

So right now, the US has a very subtle combination:

Employment is slowing down,

but wages haven’t fully cooled.

For BTC, the most comfortable scenario isn’t the US economy collapsing.

Instead, it’s:

employment gradually weakens,

inflation also comes down,

forcing the Fed to loosen.

So I’m currently leaning long in the short term,

but what truly determines the next move is Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

If Nonfarm Payrolls are also clearly weak, and

the unemployment rate doesn’t suddenly worsen,

then it will be even more favorable for BTC and ETH.

In one sentence:

44,000 is not a recession warning.

But it’s enough to make the Fed hesitate a bit more.

$BTC $ETH #ADP #美adp7月私营就业逊预期