Tonight, two sets of U.S. data delivered completely opposite signals.
In the U.S., ADP added jobs in July only 44,000, below expectations of 70,000; June was also revised down from 98,000 to 95,000.
More notably, education and healthcare contributed 36,000 jobs, accounting for about 82% of all new employment; cyclical industries such as leisure and hotels, and transportation and trade, saw contractions.
The subsequently released ISM services PMI showed that:
Composite PMI: 54.1, prior value 54.0
Business activity: 59.1, prior value 55.4
New orders: 57.2, prior value 55.1
Employment index: 47.4, prior value 51.2
Prices paid: 70.3, prior value 67.7
This set of data can be condensed into one sentence:
Demand isn’t contracting, but companies are cutting hiring—yet service-sector price pressure is rising again.
This isn’t a clean “soft-landing bullish” setup, and it isn’t already in a recession either; it’s a classic case of:
Weak employment + strong demand + hot inflation.
For the Fed, this is a harder question.
Both the ADP and ISM employment indicators are cooling, weakening the case for further rate hikes; however, new orders and business activity are clearly strengthening, and the paying prices have also risen to 70.3. This implies the Fed still lacks conditions to pivot to easing quickly.
So tonight’s market isn’t trading one direction only—it’s doing a second round of repricing between employment and inflation.
🇺🇸 For U.S. stocks: the indices are still strong, but the macro tailwind isn’t clean
As of around 22:10 Beijing time
S&P 500 up about 0.6%
Dow up about 1.1%
Nasdaq 100 up about 0.3%
However, tonight’s rise in U.S. stocks can’t be attributed entirely to economic data. Expectations of easing in the Iran situation, a pullback in oil prices, and corporate earnings alongside the AI theme are the key supports keeping the indices strong.
PMI’s internal structure affects sectors unevenly:
• Dow, financials, industrials: strong activity and strong orders provide support
• Nasdaq, software, long-duration tech: limited by rising price momentum and rate pressure
• Semiconductors: still dominated by AI demand and company earnings; macro factors are not purely bullish
• Russell 2000 and discretionary consumption: weaker employment will amplify concerns about profits
• Healthcare, utilities: defensive characteristics are relatively stronger
Therefore, U.S. equities right now look more like “corporate earnings and event expectations outweighing macro contradictions,” which doesn’t mean the market has already confirmed a easing cycle.
🏦 For U.S. Treasuries: ADP is bullish, and PMI offsets that bullishness
Weaker employment should have been good for Treasury prices rising and yields falling.
But with ISM business activity rising to 59.1 and prices rising to 70.3, it means inflation and policy risks are still present.
As of around 22:10:
U.S. 2-year Treasury yields are around 4.22%
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are around 4.62%
The front end is more sensitive to policy expectations; rising price components will limit the downside in 2-year yields. The long end is pulled in both directions by falling oil prices, easing geopolitics, and sticky inflation.
So current U.S. Treasuries are not clearly and broadly positioned for long; instead:
Weak employment suppresses yields, while hot inflation caps the downside space.
🥇 For gold: among the four assets it’s relatively the strongest, but the rise isn’t driven only by PMI
Gold this evening is above around $4,200, with an intraday gain of more than 3%.
The main drivers include:
• The U.S. dollar weakens
• U.S. Treasury yields fall back from recent highs
• ADP employment below expectations
• Geopolitical negotiations weigh on oil prices and further rate-hike expectations
• PMI price momentum strengthens the demand for gold’s inflation-hedge
Therefore, gold benefits simultaneously from “cooling employment” and “inflation still staying high,” making it relatively stronger than tech stocks and crypto assets under the current mix.
But it’s important to note: if U.S. Treasury real yields rise again later, gold at high levels may also see profit-taking. Don’t simply interpret the price of 70.3 as an unconditional bullish signal for gold.
₿ For crypto: no clean liquidity signal was obtained
As of around 22:10:
BTC around 64.4K
ETH around 1,878
SOL around 74.0
All three data points saw some volatility afterward, but the rally gains were limited—showing that market participants didn’t directly trade tonight’s data into a broad, liquid easing backdrop.
The reason is simple:
Weaker employment is beneficial for crypto-related stocks;
but rising prices and strong demand are unfavorable for rate declines.
Continue to watch closely:
BTC resistance: 64,550—65,050
ETH resistance: 1,885—1,895
SOL resistance: 74.5—75.0
Only when BTC holds on the 1H chart above 65,050 and completes a pullback can the macro bullishness be converted into an effective breakout.
If the rebound continues to face resistance, and at the same time Treasury yields rebound, then once BTC falls back below 63,650 again, the risk of further breakdown will become notably higher.
Bottom-line conclusion:
Tonight’s data is neither “economic recession,” nor “inflation victory.”
U.S. service-sector demand remains strong, but corporate hiring has clearly cooled, while price pressure has accelerated again.
This would make the Fed more inclined to wait rather than give a clear easing signal immediately.
Short-term relative strength ranking:
Gold > U.S. large-cap value and defensive sectors > Nasdaq growth stocks > Crypto assets.
What truly determines the next round of policy pricing will be Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Don’t directly interpret weaker employment as rate cuts, and don’t mistake the index rally for the macro risks having disappeared.
What the market is truly worried about has never been a single data point weakening. It’s the sense that growth, employment, and inflation are starting to move in different directions.
#U.S. stocks #U.S. Treasuries #Gold #BTC #ETH #SOL #ADP #PMI #Shouyue
This article is for market research and information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
@MK守约 Shouyue fans group